DEHRADUN: Three years after the historic town of Joshimath first grabbed global headlines for massive land subsidence, a chilling reality remains - the ground beneath the town is still moving.
As the monsoon season approaches, scientists warn that increased rainfall could accelerate slope instability, potentially plunging the region back into a crisis that many residents mistakenly believe has passed.
The geological instability that shattered peace in the Chamoli district in 2023, when deep fissures tore through homes and roads, was not an isolated event. While the current rate of slope movement is described as "extremely slow", experts from the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) caution that this is not an indicator of safety. Heavy monsoon rains could act as a catalyst, reviving the dangerous land-slipping patterns seen at the height of the 2023 disaster.
The vulnerability of Joshimath is rooted in its very geology. Dr Manish Mehta, a senior scientist at the Wadia Institute, explained the grim reality.
"Preliminary studies reveal that Joshimath is not built on solid bedrock, but on ancient glacial debris. This accumulation, left behind by a receding glacier, dates back nearly 7,000 years. The city sits on a foundation that was never meant to bear such a heavy load."
The crisis first gained national attention in 2023, following years of ignored warning signs that began as early as 2022. By the time authorities reacted, over 823 houses had developed critical cracks, leading to demolitions and evacuations. In response, a multi-agency task force comprising experts from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the Geological Survey of India (GSI), and the Central Building Research Institute (CBRI), Roorkee, conducted a detailed audit.
Though initially kept confidential, the findings of these eight top-tier institutions were eventually made public following a directive from the Nainital High Court. The reports identified inadequate drainage systems and unchecked human activity as the primary drivers of the subsidence.
The NDMA report painted a stark picture - out of 2,152 structures in the town, 1,403 were impacted. While authorities recommended rebuilding 472 homes and repairing 931, the situation remains precarious. With many residents having moved back, the upcoming monsoon poses a significant threat to public safety.
Despite the data, a dangerous sense of complacency has taken root. Many residents have returned to their homes, assuming the ground has stabilised. Dr Vineet Gahlot, Director of the Wadia Institute, warned against this perception, stating that simply marking homes as sensitive is not enough and that the town continues to shift, albeit slowly.
As the clouds gather for the monsoon, the people of Joshimath stand at a crossroads. Without urgent, science-backed mitigation and a clear acknowledgment of the geological risks, the town remains a disaster waiting to happen.
