NEW DELHI: As 2026 comes into view, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears politically steadier. Perhaps reinforced after a bruising year that tested India’s resilience and his own political instincts.
The opposition began with urgency and promise, briefly shaping the political conversation and raising expectations of a turning tide. But momentum ebbed. By the time the dust settled, the BJP’s victory in Bihar had reset the narrative, paving way for Modi’s continued centrality and reasserting the party’s dominance in national political discourse.
The year 2025 opened with sharp external shocks, most notably an unprecedented trade and tariff tussle with the United States. For a leader who has invested enormous political capital in diplomacy and in projecting India as a reliable global partner, the sudden chill in India–US relations posed a real test. Few anticipated that a relationship built over decades could fray so quickly.
Even as ties with Washington cooled, India pressed ahead with trade diplomacy, signing free trade agreements with the UK, New Zealand, and Oman, while making decisive progress with the European Union. India could hedge, diversify, and keep its economic doors open, even amid geopolitical uncertainty.
At home, 2025 laid bare the country’s governance stresses. The southwest monsoon was harsh, nearly half the country was lashed by extreme rainfall, floods and landslides claimed over 1,500 lives. The worst aviation accident in a very long time shook public confidence.
Deadly stampedes exposed persistent failures in crowd management and state capacity. Long-standing issues, rural distress, crumbling urban infrastructure, attacks on minorities, and institutional erosion, resurfaced with renewed force. Then came the terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 civilians and triggered a brief but serious military confrontation with Pakistan. It was, by any measure, a year that could politically weaken and wound any incumbent.
But Modi emerged unscathed. The opposition started well, framing governance failures and accountability as its rallying cry. The SIR issue was projected as a potential inflection point, but it failed to sustain public attention. Fragmentation, uneven messaging, and an inability to convert grievance into a coherent alternative once again dulled its edge at the polls.
The BJP, meanwhile, continued to draw on its organisational depth, and ideological dominance. Its ability to adapt, recalibrate, and course-correct at speed remains intact. Modi’s electoral appeal, capacity for reinvention and cross-regional appeal give him a qualitative advantage, especially against a divided opposition.
Crucially, economic fundamentals offered ballast. Growth held at 6.5% in 2025 and is expected to remain at similar levels, while reforms in taxation and labour laws strengthened the long-term investment narrative. In turbulent times, stability counts and stable leadership matters.