SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory has recorded winter rainfall deficit for the seventh consecutive year, recording 65% deficit during core winter period of December 2025 to February 2026.
According to data compiled by independent weather forecaster Arif Faizan, J&K received only 100.6 mm of precipitation from Dec 2025–Feb 2026 against a normal of 284.9 mm, marking one of the driest winters in recent record.
The sharp shortfall was largely driven by an exceptionally dry and warm February, which saw rainfall collapse by nearly 90 percent.
According to the data, December 2025 recorded only 13.0 mm of precipitation as against a normal of 59.4 mm, a deficit of 78 percent.In January 2026 there was some relief due to intermittent Western Disturbance but rainfall still remained below normal at 73.4 mm as compared to the usual 95.1 mm, which shows a shortfall of 23 percent.
As per the data, February 2026, which has witnessed unprecedented warmth and heat, recorded only 14.2 mm rainfall as against a normal of 130.4 mm, reflecting an 89 percent deficit and dragging the overall seasonal total sharply downward.
Faizan noted that this marks the seventh straight winter in Kashmir since 2019–20 to end below normal rainfall.
The deficits over the past seven winters have steadily deepened: minus 20 percent (2019–20), minus 37 percent (2020–21), minus 8 percent (2021–22), minus 34 percent (2022–23), minus 54 percent (2023–24), minus 45 percent (2024–25), and now minus 65 percent (2025–26).
In contrast, earlier winters such as 2016–17 (+29 percent), 2018–19 (+36 percent), and 2012–13 (+14 percent) had recorded surplus precipitation.
Since 2019 the pattern has shifted markedly toward persistent deficit rainfall, with only 2021–22 coming close to normal. The rainfall shortfall has been widespread across both Kashmir and Jammu.
In Kashmir, Srinagar recorded 84.2 mm rainfall as against a normal of 236.5 mm (–64 percent), while Kulgam saw an 80 percent deficit and Shopian 82 percent below normal. Kupwara and Budgam also recorded deficits exceeding 60 percent.In Jammu region, Kishtwar registered one of the steepest declines at 90 percent below normal. Jammu district itself recorded 67.9 mm against 191.1 mm (–64 percent), while Ramban, Kathua and Udhampur also posted significant deficits.
“Winter precipitation is critical for Jammu and Kashmir as snowfall in higher reaches feeds rivers and springs, recharges groundwater, sustains irrigation for orchards and crops, and regulates temperatures through snow cover,” Faizan said.
The experts have warned that repeated winter shortfalls weaken the snowpack and reduce the natural melt water buffer that the region relies on during late spring and summer.
Faizan said seven consecutive deficient winters in J&K points to an emerging climatic shift marked by weaker or more erratic Western Disturbances, greater rainfall variability, and prolonged dry spells during the between active winter phases.