US President Trump finally decided to pull out of the Paris Agreement on June 1. Trump said, “In order to fulfil my solemn duty to the United States and its citizens, the US will withdraw from the Paris climate accord, but begin negotiations to re-enter either the Paris accords or a really entirely new transaction, on terms that are fair to the United States.”
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, signed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, aims at “strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius”. The United States and other 196 countries had committed themselves to the accord.
Although the agreement sent a positive signal across the globe about the need to combat climate change, Trump and many US citizens criticised former President Obama’s decision to become a signatory of the accord. Even the Speaker of House of Representatives Paul Ryan support Trump on this issue, saying Paris agreement was “simply a raw deal for America”.
During the presidential election campaign, Trump had promised that he would pull the United States out of the Paris accord if elected. His election as the president consequently saw Trump harden his position. It was therefore only a matter of time before Trump would make a formal announcement to quit the Paris Agreement. So, the decision to quit was not a surprise. What was shocking was Trump’s justification for the move.
Trump says that quitting the accord will revive the coal sector. Ever since the start of the US election campaign, many Republican lawmakers, coal companies, think tanks and others had brainwashed Trump into believing that the agreement would damage any prospect of reviving the coal sector which is facing a deplorable situation. In fact, three companies iron-ore miner Cliffs Natural Recourses Inc., and coal miners Murray Energy Corp., and Peabody Energy Crop welcomed Trump’s decision.
But Trump’s move might not help the coal sector spring back on its feet, because the demand for coal itself is falling as it is being replaced by cheap and abundant natural gas. Also, reviving the coal sector does not mean more jobs. Technology is replacing miners and in countries like Australia, self-driving trucks have already been tested in coal mines. The coal industry in the US employed about 2,42,000 people in 1980. But now, fewer than 1,00,000 people work in the industry although production rose by 8 per cent.
Similarly, Trump says that he wants the US to take back control. Such flimsy arguments do not hold water because the Paris Agreement is not legally binding. In fact, all member countries can modify their commitment to the agreement in line with their national interests and it is not necessary for them to exit the agreement at all.
So at best, Trump’s motivating factors for quitting the accord could be misinformed advisors and his pathological hatred for Obama. But apart from all this, does the US president even believe in climate change? We have heard Trump repeatedly call climate change a “hoax”. Even when he announced America’s exit from the Paris agreement, he did not tell anything about his stand on the issue of climate change. Only recently, Nikki Haley, America’s ambassador to the UN, said Trump believed in global warming. Then, why did he quit the Paris Agreement? Whatever has been the motive behind Trump’s decision, there is no doubt about the fact that at a time when countries are struggling to develop the means to address climate change, the US president’s act will make this planet more vulnerable. Following Trump, other countries may also decide to abandon this agreement.
However, the possibility of that happening is very remote as many countries which have signed the Paris Agreement have expressed their strong commitment to combat climate change. Germany, France, and Italy have also strongly condemned Trump’s decision and announced that the Paris accord cannot be renegotiated. Apart from other nations affirming their commitment to the accord, many states in the US itself have criticised Trump’s move. Only yesterday, California signed a climate agreement with China.
India is equally concerned about global warming, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi playing a crucial role in signing the agreement. Right after Trump’s announcement, Modi vowed India would go “above and beyond” the Paris Agreement.
Trump had even claimed that India signed the accord to receive “billions and billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid”. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj strongly objected to this statement. She further mentioned that it is not out of greed that India is a party to this agreement. In fact, protecting the environment is embedded in India’s culture. According to a recent research by Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific analysis produced by three research organisations tracking climate action since 2009, India and China would easily exceed the targets set in the Paris agreement.
India is expected to obtain 40 per cent of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2022, eight years ahead of schedule.
Thus, Trump’s statement about India and the Paris accord has clearly reflected his poor knowledge about the issue. While many countries want to ensure that the US withdrawal does not adversely impact their efforts to protect the planet, it may also be hoped that the Trump administration would revisit its decision and rejoin the accord before the US eventually exits in 2019.
Sumit Kumar is with the UGC Centre for Southern Asia Studies
Email: sumitjha83@gmail.com