Kim-Pak nuke threat real; India must be alert
Of late, the missile-related developments in Pakistan are worrying but not as worrying as the illicit nuclear network between Pyongyang and Islamabad, with Beijing as the pivot. Galaxy Corporation Pvt Ltd, a front company affiliated to the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, has supplied two specialised corrosion-resistant nickel-alloy metals Inconel and Monel, which have applications in uranium enrichment and chemical weapons production to North Korea.
Another questionable export are the vacuum induction melting furnaces, which are used in forging uranium or plutonium metal into hemispheres for the fissile pit and, and are hence controlled by the Nuclear Suppliers Group due to their utility for weapons manufacturing.
This brings us to our threat perceptions about Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi’s claim that his country now has short-range nuclear weapons to counter the ‘Cold Start’ doctrine adopted by the Indian Army. Interspersed with epithets of ‘mentally deranged dotard, and barking dog’ thrown at US President Trump by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, are claims that Pongyang has miniaturised nuclear bombs, and has adequate knowledge of programming and controlling thermonuclear/hydrogen fission weapons.
The last six months have underscored the rogue nation’s capacities in both nuclear and missile technology. The period has also seen Pakistan being increasingly isolated internationally. While we have no actual proof that Pakistan has successfully miniaturised tactical nuclear weapons, the proof of their range of tactical missiles are evident, as is undeniable proof of their anti-proliferation trade with North Korea.
Pongyang is expected to be able to withstand the UN sanctions, as help from the Chinese is unlikely to be shut down.
Pongyang has, and will be a strategic asset for Beijing. The US on its part cannot afford to take an excessively belligerent stance with China, which could affect its $650 billion trade with the country. Moreover, North Korea has demonstrated that it has in its arsenal nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles. Hence Washington, despite sending B-1B long-range bombers and F-15 jets close to North Korea’s east coast, is unlikely to up the ante towards actual hostilities, given the country’s demonstrated nuclear prowess.
There is an uneasy equilibrium, which indicates that negotiations with Beijing over myriad issues, are underway—possibly including the presence of THAAD missiles in South Korea.
New Delhi is a bystander in this issue, but a bystander who needs to be on alert. Pakistan’s links with North Korea are evident, and while nuclear shadow boxing by Islamabad is only to be expected, the potential and overwhelming danger it projects cannot be underestimated. Dialogues with Islamabad, the US and China to prevent any attempts of adventurism by the Pak military needs to be at the top of our agenda.
Prabha Rao
Senior Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
prabhamurti@gmail.com
(Ravi Shankar is travelling. His column will be back on October 14).