Meeting when the world’s first ‘live-streamed genocide’ in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war are in the backdrop, one would expect the two issues to dominate the BRICS summit opening in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday. But these issues are unlikely to take the centre-stage. Instead, that space is likely to be claimed by the politics behind the group’s expansion, the battle for leadership of the Global South between China and India, and whether BRICS should evolve as an anti-Western bloc spearheaded by Beijing and Moscow.
The acronym BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India, China—was coined in 2001 to club together the four countries as attractive investment destinations. In 2010, the group was expanded to include South Africa, thus becoming BRICS. This year, four members were added—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE. Although not formally a member yet, Saudi Arabia participates in the group’s activities.
These 10 countries represent 35.6 percent of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms and 45 percent of the world’s population. It’s projected to expand further—with more than 40 countries having expressed interest in joining, including emerging powers Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia. Thus the battle for its leadership assumes global importance.
As the US seeks to isolate China geopolitically, China looks at the Global South for its future. Although an upper-middle-income country, China positions itself as a member of the developing world, standing in solidarity with the poor and the oppressed—especially through its Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, for Beijing, the leadership of BRICS will be a major diplomatic win.
Beijing also made notable strides in global diplomacy. For example, it brokered a historic deal in March 2023 bringing together arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations. It has also brokered relations between rival Palestinian factions.
Meanwhile, by hosting the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin could claim that not only has the West’s effort to isolate Moscow failed, but it remains an important member of a group spearheading the Global South that is capable of influencing the future of the global order shifting away from a US-led unipolarity.
However, beneath the bloc’s growing prominence lies a deepening leadership struggle, particularly between India and China. A major point of contention is the group’s expansion. For India, it’s a challenge as China intends to use BRICS enlargement to enhance its strategic influence in the developing world.
Since China’s initial push in 2017 for a broader membership under the ‘BRICS Plus’ initiative, there has been a noticeable divide within the group with India and Brazil expressing reservations about the move. Both countries were initially wary of expanding the bloc, fearing it could dilute their influence. However, in the face of China’s intensified push in 2023, India and Brazil acquiesced.
India’s decision to support enlargement reflects its desire to maintain its standing in the Global South while balancing its growing rivalry with China.
New Delhi recognised the strategic benefits of remaining engaged with BRICS, especially as China’s influence continues to rise. Beijing’s diplomatic heft and argument that blocking expansion would stifle the rise of other developing nations forced Brazil to relent.
There are ideological cleavages among BRICS members, too. China and Russia—and now Iran—are keen to position the group against the West and the global order crafted by Washington and Brussels.
However, non-aligned countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa do not have any appetite for such a binary confrontation between the East and the West. For India, this is particularly crucial as it seeks to maintain strong ties with the US and its allies, while also balancing its growing competition with China. President Lula da Silva of Brazil often reiterates that BRICS is “against no one”.
However, as BRICS expands and diversifies, this binary dilemma is likely to grow. This is a quandary for countries like Saudi Arabia, which seeks to maintain strong ties with both the US and China, and for Latin American nations looking to diversify their foreign relations without severing traditional ties with the West.
Despite these internal divisions, most BRICS countries view the global shift to multipolarity as a crucial process to ensure a more stable and equitable international order. The group’s shared interest in challenging Western hegemony remains a powerful unifying force that explains why the bloc continues to be attractive to many nations in the Global South, which see BRICS as an alternative to Western-dominated institutions.
It’s also an appealing forum for many middle- and low-income nations, or “bystander countries” as South Africa calls them, that are deprived of a seat at the high table.
As Narendra Modi engages other BRICS leaders in Kazan, the first summit since the bloc’s expansion, India has an opportunity to present its credentials as a leader of the Global South, including New Delhi’s successful initiative last year to bring Africa into the G20 fold.
It is also an opportunity for New Delhi to play its non-alignment card to prevent BRICS from becoming a platform of US-China rivalry or an echo chamber of the Sino-Russian axis. This ideological battle between the anti-Western countries and the non-aligned ones will determine the future of BRICS.
E D Mathew
Former spokesperson, United Nations
(Views are personal)