At a time when the world is grappling with climate breakdown, economic instability, widening wealth inequality and deepening gender divisions, perhaps only one truth stays constant: people must be at the centre of the future we imagine.
The relation between population and development has never been more critical. Long before Thomas Robert Malthus and Adam Smith, thinkers across the world—from Kautilya in India to Confucius in China and Aristotle in Greece—grappled with a fundamental question: how does the size and composition of a population influence a society’s prosperity, stability, and moral order?
Between the 15th and 18th centuries, the thought shifted dramatically as resources came to be viewed as limited. Population growth, once considered a sign of strength, came to be seen as something that would inevitably lead to economic instability, wealth inequality, poverty and hunger. However, this narrative was challenged in the 20th century by the success of Norman Borlaug’s Green Revolution. Advances in agricultural technology dramatically increased food production, seemingly resolving the long-feared crisis of feeding a growing population.
Yet, despite this surplus, millions around the world still go hungry. This contradiction underscores the core issue is not absolute scarcity or inadequate production, but rather inequality, flawed distribution systems, and poor governance. These enduring challenges—rooted in questions of justice and access—have echoed through history and must remain central to global development debates. They are more relevant than ever in the pursuit of a just and sustainable future.
India’s demographic story has always been complex. Once feared for its so-called population explosion, India now faces a fertility transition. According to the National Family Health Survey 5, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to 2.0—below the replacement level. There are two contradictory concerns at the centre of population debates today. On one hand, some commentators express concerns about India’s “overpopulation” and the resultant strain on resources, jobs, and infrastructure. Then there are others who point to the declining fertility rates—particularly in the southern and western states—and warn that we may be heading towards an ageing crisis and shrinking workforce.
This paradoxical anxiety about having both too many and too few people is symptomatic of a demographic discourse that is fundamentally flawed. It assumes fertility and population can be engineered or manipulated through policy interventions, incentives, or even coercion, without addressing the social norms, freedoms, and inequalities that actually drive demographic choices.
With rapid fertility decline, rising life expectancy, improved healthcare, and other positive demographic and socio-economic trends, India has much reason to be optimistic about its development trajectory. Yet, critical questions remain.
First, can India truly harness its demographic dividend by transforming its vast youth population into a skilled and productive workforce—especially at a time when youth unemployment remains alarmingly high?
Second, with population ageing accelerating, particularly in southern states, how will India integrate its growing elderly population into productive roles, especially when employment opportunities are limited even for younger cohorts and safety nets remain weak?
Third and perhaps the most critical, India’s demographic discourse continues to neglect the potential of the gender dividend. With fertility rates falling and women attaining higher levels of education, how are Indian policymakers planning to integrate this shifting female population into the economy? Will their potential be realised through formal employment, entrepreneurship, or leadership roles? And most importantly, how will the unpaid work they continue to shoulder be recognised, redistributed, and valued both socially and economically?
Fourth, the continued existence of widespread child labour in India highlights major gaps in our education and protection frameworks. Despite policies like the Sarva/Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan and the Right to Education Act, many children, especially from marginalised communities, remain excluded from meaningful education and are instead absorbed into exploitative labour forces. This not only undermines their rights, but also compromises India’s long-term human capital development.
Fifth, while poverty levels have declined in recent years, a substantial portion of the population still struggles with deprivation. Meanwhile, the number of millionaires has grown sharply. Data from the World Inequality Database paints a stark picture: the bottom 50 percent of the population owns just 6.4 percent of the country’s wealth, while the top 10 percent holds 65 percent, and the top 1 percent alone owns 40.1 percent . In terms of income, the bottom 50 percent population earns only 15 percent of the national income, compared to 57.7 percent claimed by the top 10 percent. This extreme imbalance between population, income, and wealth distribution highlights the urgent need to reimagine India’s development model not only through the lens of growth, but through equity, inclusion, and justice.
Today, as we observe World Population Day, India must seize the opportunity to rethink its population discourse. The real issue is not the number of people, but the persistent failure of institutions, governance, and policies to ensure justice, equity, and opportunity for all. While youth empowerment is vital, so too is the imperative to focus on women, the elderly, children, and the marginalised in our demographic vision. Population is not the problem—injustice is.
It is time to reject the false binaries of “too many” or “too few” and embrace a justice-driven discourse. Demographic measures should not be about control or reaching an “ideal” number. It should be about creating the conditions under which all people can live with dignity, exercise choice and autonomy, and realise their full potential.
(Views are personal)
Balhasan Ali | Assistant Professor at the School of Public Policy and Governance, TISS, Hyderabad