There is a quiet shiver going down the spine of every global company in the business of selling products and services. The fear that was once a distant reality is now at the doorstep of many companies selling fast-moving consumer goods, durables and, literally, any company of any kind that has been a market leader for a while now. It is the fear of being overtaken by a new generation of customers who just don’t want to touch what they have been marketing nonchalantly for a while.
What am I talking about? The biggest companies across the globe seem to be showing a thriving bottomline of profit and, at times, even a thriving topline of revenue. But the niggling worry in every boardroom is about being overtaken by a notion. A notion that fast becomes a movement. And a movement that very quickly becomes a part of counter-culture. A part of commercial counter-culture even, if you may call it that. Something that defines the very existence of the categories, products and the many brands that thrive within them.
Let me exemplify. Let me pick a beverage. Alcohol, for instance. Even as India witnesses a boom in alcohol consumption with the industry hitting a market size of $60 billion in 2024-25, the world is struggling to fight a decline. All of a sudden, the young are drinking less and less, even as the old continue with their good old habits. Brands that created legacies of success for themselves in the alco-bev industry are today struggling to reinvent their relevance. Volumes are down, new launches do not meet with success and consumption seems to be threatened. Europe is in the lead in this movement, and the US follows.
Even as the first-generation world of alcohol consumption is struggling, India is on a different trajectory. Out here, growth is just about beginning. Or so it seems. I wouldn’t take too hasty a call on that comment though. I would wait and watch.
The world of alcohol is globally threatened by a notion. This notion says alcohol is not good for the body or mind. The industry bites back and says anything in moderation is good. And that just might be the truth. Notions, however, know no truth. Notions are thoughts. Thoughts live and thrive in people’s minds. And thoughts are viral. Most of these thoughts come to the fore in the minds of the young.
The young look at the generations that are ahead and do a critique on consumption, lifestyle, usage and habits of their fathers and forefathers. Not to speak of their mothers. The young are quick and damning in their verdict. The verdict on alcohol for now is a firm no. Gen Z began the trend of sober parties where just no alcohol was served. The parties rocked. They happened early in the mornings after a run. They happened at all times of the day. Who says you need it to be a late night to party?
The Alpha generation, which is the single largest living cohort in our midst today, took it a step further. ‘Bhajan rave’ is a popular format in India, taking a leaf out of gospel parties that rock the Western world. A zero-alcohol party is the new and happening party to be at.
What does it do to the alcohol industry then? It makes it worry. It makes it think. It makes it ideate. It makes it come up with strategies to insulate topline growth. It makes it want to protect brand names. Supermarkets in the US today have a five-fold presence of zero-proof options on their counters. For every popular alcoholic beer, there are five more popular options of zero-alcohol drinks.
If there are zero-alcohol parties and zero-alcohol game-days, the alco-bev industry has been quick to offer options with the same brand name, but just no alcohol in it for consumption. There is a desperate clamour to insulate topline losses of carefully-built-up volumes over the decades of the alco-bev.
Just as the industry rises to the occasion, the restaurant and bar business is reinventing itself as well. Walk into any bar in India today, and there are the cocktails, the mocktails and the cocktails that are zero-proof mimics of the original. Life has changed. And life is changing fast.
The notion is no longer a notion. It is a movement in North America and Europe, where companies have been quick to sort the problem out for themselves. If you can’t beat them, join them. Go with what the notion wants. Go with the movement. Don’t fight it. Be a part of it to win within.
And so begins an entire new philosophy of marketing, where product categories and the brands within them are reinventing to play the game with a new generation of completely different consumers. Companies are redefining their entire vision and mission statements and are adding purpose statements to their corporate intent. These purpose statements talk of not only their existing customers, but their potential customers from the arena of counter-culture even.
Is this about alcohol alone? I don’t think so. It will happen all across. Look around our lives. There is a battle between carbohydrates and proteins. The latter seems to be winning for now. Even your humble paneer is touting the percentage of protein in it. If protein wins, carbohydrate loses. Or does it? Time will tell. Eat less biscuits and eat more fibre instead. The biscuit company of today needs to reinvent itself quick and fast. And I do believe it is trying to.
Sugar is an enemy. So is salt. Maida is a criminal. Oil is a thug. There are a whole host of food ingredients that are under the scanner of the new-age consumer. Brands that use a lot of these need to be paranoid about the movement that is about to unfold, even in India. While some brands have woken up to the opportunity and are reinventing their business models, others are taking the shortcut of buying out brands that seem more holistic in their offerings from new-age startups. If you don’t have the organic muscle to make it on your own, go inorganic. Buy it out.
Every industry—from cosmetics to air conditioners, fans to luggage, and packaging to literally everything else that clutters our consumer life—will go through this tumult. Companies need to sit up and smell the burn. In the beginning, it’s just smoke. And where there is smoke, there sure is fire. Companies need to get their act right before the blaze is too big to handle.
There surely will be three kinds of companies. One will watch things as they happen. The second will make things happen. The third will wonder what happened.
As I wade my way through concerned boardrooms across categories of consumer items, my one big advice to each of them: be paranoid. Andy Grove was just so right: only the paranoid shall survive.
Harish Bijoor | Brand guru & founder of Harish Bijoor Consults Inc
(Views are personal)
(harishbijoor@hotmail.com)