In the unforgiving geometry of South Asian power, geography is destiny and memory is never inert. Few frontiers embody this truth more starkly than the 4,000-km arc binding India to Bangladesh. Bangladesh is not merely India’s neighbour; it is the eastern fulcrum of India’s continental security, the custodian of shared waters that irrigate half a billion lives, and the gateway to the Bay of Bengal’s widening strategic theatre. What transpires in Dhaka therefore reverberates far beyond its deltaic plains. It recalibrates the balance of power in the subcontinent and tests New Delhi’s diplomatic agility, moral consistency and strategic patience.
Last week, Bangladesh delivered a verdict that reverberated like a seismic shift. Tarique Rahman’s BNP seized an overwhelming mandate, capturing 212 of the 299 declared seats and a two-thirds majority. The Mohammed Yunus-led interim administration, born of the 2024 Gen Z uprising that toppled Sheikh Hasina, has been consigned to history. After more than three decades of female dominance, a male PM assumes office. Jamaat-e-Islami, once a reluctant ally, now leads the opposition benches with almost 70 seats. Yet, the true measure of the verdict lies in its crushing rejection of fundamentalist forces, who managed a mere six seats.
PM Narendra Modi clearly recognised that new reality. Within hours of the result crystallising, he was among the first heads of government to telephone Rahman and extend congratulations, underscoring India’s readiness to work with a democratic, stable and inclusive Bangladesh. The initiative was India’s way of steadying the waters before speculation hardened into suspicion.
For media mavens, it was a merciless national inquisition into the savagery of the post-Hasina interlude, a binding referendum on minority sanctity, and a thunderous affirmation of a Bangladesh First doctrine centred on economic reform, pragmatic governance and national renewal. The path to this outcome was paved with innocent blood and poisoned by betrayal. After Hasina’s fall in August 2024, Bangladesh descended into a calculated reign of terror against its religious minorities. Global institutions recorded over 2,000 assaults on Hindus and other minorities in the first 100 days alone, with murders, temple burnings and orchestrated expulsions sending thousands fleeing into India.
A UN inquiry, invited by Yunus himself, tore apart the regime’s denials and confirmed targeted campaigns against Hindus, Ahmadiyas and some indigenous groups. The spectacle of displaced families, ruined shrines and hunted worshippers on Indian screens turned bilateral ties into a cauldron of resentment. India’s sheltering of ousted PM Hasina only deepened the rift.
However, Rahman, returning from 17 years of exile in London after his mother Khaleda Zia’s death, cast himself as the restorer of sovereignty. On the campaign trail, he spoke of a reborn Bangladesh that would heal fractures. In a defining address, he declared the nation a shared inheritance of hills and plains, of Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians, insisting that every citizen must walk the streets unafraid. That message, fused with a fear of Jamaat rule, produced a profound realignment. In nearly three dozen Hindu-majority constituencies, once Awami League strongholds, the 9 percent Hindu electorate swung decisively to the BNP. They saw Rahman’s party as the only viable shield against the networks that had terrorised them for 18 months.
The result forged an improbable coalition: minorities seeking safety, youth demanding dignity and jobs, and conservative Muslims rejecting both hereditary rule and Western tutelage. The Islamist challenge, however, is far from vanquished. Jamaat and its allies control 77 seats and retain a hardened ideological machine. More ominously, they secured their strongest support in constituencies bordering India. This geographic concentration carries grave implications. It risks encouraging illegal infiltration across the porous frontier and could provide fertile ground for elements seeking to launch attacks on Indian territory. Rahman must act with unyielding resolve to prevent any such slide.
For Bangladesh’s minorities, the BNP victory offers a fragile hope. Rahman has promised to restore order and enshrine the safety of all faiths as a core State duty. For India, the stakes could not be higher. The slaughter of Hindus has scarred mutual trust. New Delhi watched in alarm as pogroms spread and refugees crossed the border, creating political storms in sensitive states. The asylum granted to Hasina, though defensible, was weaponised to paint India as the enemy. Relations collapsed, from stalled water talks to cultural boycotts and last month’s extraordinary decision by the Bangladesh Cricket Board to shun matches on Indian soil for the T20 World Cup, a move Pakistan initially joined. Cricket, once a bridge, became another battlefield. Yet, Modi’s swift recognition of Rahman’s mandate has cracked open a door for recalibration.
For India, the new leadership’s conduct would be the decisive factor. Should Rahman safeguard minorities, deliver justice for the 2024-25 atrocities and ensure Bangladesh never again harbours anti-India rebels. It must ensure that a new era of pragmatic partnership becomes possible, spanning trade, energy, connectivity and border security. The future of India-Bangladesh ties will rest on three unyielding conditions. To begin, Rahman must visibly sever links with extremist elements and deny sanctuary to Indian insurgents. In addition, Dhaka must pursue a transactional relationship based on mutual strategic and economic benefit, rejecting the trans-border confrontation that has repeatedly poisoned the well. Finally, Bangladesh must assert its sovereign identity with confidence while acknowledging India’s indispensable regional role.
The two nations are bound by geography, history and shared destiny in ways ideology cannot erase. Bangladesh would be wise to reject the Pakistan model of endless confrontation, a road that turned a proud nation into a failed State and perpetual beggar, forever seeking doles from foreign patrons. Bangladesh has already travelled a wiser path through decades of relative peace with its giant neighbour. With India and Bangladesh aligned, the delta can emerge as a powerhouse of growth, connectivity and stability.
At home, the BNP’s commanding majority gives Rahman the space to govern boldly. His early ban on victory processions was a wise signal of restraint. If he honours his pledges of inclusion, restores confidence and charts a foreign policy that balances sovereignty with pragmatic engagement toward India, then this nation of 170 million can enter an era of stability and assertive diplomacy. India will find in Dhaka a partner that strengthens regional order rather than undermines it. How Rahman navigates justice, nationalism and governance will determine whether Bangladesh becomes a pillar of strength for New Delhi or a perpetual source of peril.
Prabhu Chawla
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
Follow him on X @PrabhuChawla