Truant weather may spoil rabi crop, impact food inflation
Deficient winter rains and a possible early onset of hot spells threaten the rabi crop, especially wheat, in Punjab and Haryana. But the spell extends to the east—experts say the lack of moisture in the winter air adversely affects the wheat crop in Jharkhand. According to the MeT department, January rainfall witnessed a huge shortfall and stood at its lowest in five years. Scientists blame the dry spell on the lack of western disturbances over northwest and central India. Due to this climatic change, the winter air does not have enough moisture which is crucial for wheat growth.
The reduced production of wheat in the current rabi season is likely to affect the overall availability of foodgrain and may also impact food inflation. The government had foreseen the situation and continued the export ban on wheat. It has also offloaded around 30 lakh tonnes of grain into the open market to keep prices in check. The free ration scheme has considerably depleted the government’s reserves, and it was hoping to replenish the buffer stock with the current rabi yield. But the weather is playing truant. With harvest time barely two months away, experts say that the country would be lucky if it can touch last year’s level despite the fact that farmers have sown wheat on more land than the previous year.
The decline in production last year resulted in food prices shooting up and food inflation touching double digits. India could not export wheat as announced by the government. The world was facing a shortage of wheat as supplies had stopped from Russia and Ukraine due to the war. A similar situation has not been ruled out this year. But with the possibility of production reaching the expected levels, the government is likely to procure less to allow procurement and sale by private players, which will maintain the availability of grain in the market.
The fear of less-than-expected rabi production has spotlighted the kharif crop, which has also been affected due to erratic rainfall. Paddy, the main kharif crop, reduced acreage by two million hectares last season due to the monsoon deficit in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. Rice production reduced by 6.06% compared to the previous year. Climate change is impacting our rainfall and food security.