There has been much speculation in the past about the shape and structure of the next government and what the combined Congress and BJP number of seats would be. In 2009, the two parties bagged 322 seats between them, while the others got 220. But as things stand now, the Congress with 130-135 seats and the BJP with 120-125 seats while the regional parties with 270-odd would be the bigger threat to both national parties in 2014.
The BJP always had an issue at the “top” after Atalji retired on health grounds, but now the RSS has bounced back and a hard Hindutva policy is very much on the cards. My assessment is that the Congress will be the beneficiary if not by a surge in numbers but by greater acceptability by the regional parties. What we are seeing today are the “initial moves” by JD(U), BJD and TMC. I do not believe that either the majority or
the minority community will accept this situation and even the charisma and popularity of Atalji in 2004 could not dispel the fear among minorities who swung their votes in favour of the Congress after the unfortunate events of 2002.
I am thinking aloud and considering options as I feel that things will change rather dramatically after the visit of Amit Shah to Uttar Pradesh. I may be wrong, but things can go out of control and I am disturbed with the speed with which Nitish Kumar has acted.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand hold 134 seats and I think Mulayam Singh Yadav and the SP are both under pressure and if panic increases, the crucial minority vote will shift to some extent from the SP to the Congress, as the latter can give a better fight on an all-India basis. A similar situation exists in Bihar—the Congress alliance with RJD and LJP is a possibility. The twin pressure of the two will also react with the TMC and I think in today’s time and age, it will be difficult for anyone to communalise the issue.
Time will tell if Narendra Modi encourages the support of Right wing forces as hundreds exist and it is a known phenomenon that these exist in most parts of the world and their voices only get louder when the political system gets weaker or people suffer economic hardship. This is visible in many parts of the Western world under recession. No one is an exception to this pressure and look at all the visa restriction in the US, the many forms of controls in the UK and we all know about the situation in Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece. All this will pass but we need to have patience to weather the storm. The BRICS nations are also in trouble and we are desperately trying to achieve 5 per cent growth in the current year.
The aam aadmi does not react in anger or in haste but everyone has their ears to the ground and will form their opinion with time but the fear exists. All eyes will be on Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan where the Assembly battles will be decided and you can expect a battle royale between the Congress and BJP.
It was a battle royale yesterday. But we are already through to the semi-finals and hopefully the weather gods will be kind and we will have a good match. The IPL probe looks to be floundering and after all the media statements by the police and a savage attack by the media, things are looking very different with most people applauding our team of Champions when M S Dhoni speaks with his bat. The one thing which is clear is the remarkable performance of the ‘new’ boys and look what a difference Shikhar Dhawan and Rohit Sharma have made and what can one say of Ravinder Jadeja. Many considered him mediocre but he has turned out to be a super star. We wish our team well.
Arunnehru89@yahoo.in
Nehru is a former Union minister