The past two weeks have seen a great tragedy in Uttarakhand, while at the same time in the UK, captain M S Dhoni and his boys in blue have done us proud and scored a decisive victory in the ICC tournament.
The latter of course has no political side to it, but the former has unnecessarily generated a political controversy. No words can suitably describe the bravery of the armed forces and paramilitary, and it is a miracle that so many thousands were rescued. The battle is far from over and now starts the painful process of rebuilding the entire infrastructure that has been destroyed by this catastrophe.
This year, natural calamities in various parts of the world have generated extraordinary situations, and I wonder if all this is due to climate change and global warming. We can only guess and we can only feel the effects of the havoc. It is unthinkable to think of a city like Singapore being choked with smoke from forest fires in Indonesia. As I write, I think of the tsunami which crippled Japan and the one earlier which killed hundreds and thousands in Thailand, Sri Lanka and India. The disturbing bit is that no one is raising any alarm.
In Uttarakhand, a mild earthquake struck too, and in the current situation, it could have caused considerable damage. The epicentre was Pitthoragarh, which has already suffered in the recent turmoil. There are less than 5,000 people left to be rescued but the real problems of the state will start now. Foundations of thousands of houses have been weakened and epidemic can follow. Everyone will have to perform multiple tasks to bring the situation under control. Everyone is alert and I am sure that we will all put in an effort to overcome this terrible tragedy. The mass cremations have already started.
Meanwhile, in politics, the immediate attention is on the Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi. As far as Chhattisgarh is concerned, we have seen planned mass murder by the Maoists of the Congress leadership, and the people will give a fitting answer to this dreadful crime. In Madhya Pradesh, the odds will favour the BJP but the anti-incumbency signs are visible. I see a close contest and there are still four months to go for elections. Rajasthan six months ago looked like a one-way fight in favour of Vasundhara Raje, who continues to work hard in the field, but the trend in the past three months has changed dramatically for CM Ashok Gehlot and the Congress. My current assessment is that it is a neck-to-neck battle and it is difficult to predict a clear winner at this stage. In Delhi, Sheila Dikshit has been in election mode for the past few months, and should score an easy victory. She has initiated important reforms on several land issues and these are very important for the electoral battle ahead.
West Bengal has panchayat polls and the charismatic Mamata Banerjee is quite capable of springing a surprise. A good performance in these elections will show that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is moving towards the 20+ category for the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. A poor performance will give the CPI(M) the decisive edge. The TMC chief has ruled out an alliance with the NDA, and this is clearly to protect her minority vote.
In the overall situation, I see regional parties with 270 seats, the Congress between 150 to 155, and the BJP at 120 seats. The position will become clearer every month, as the process of group formations is discussed among all parties. The regional parties have the numbers, but may well have four or five contenders and this could result in three separate groups; once this happens, the initiative goes towards the Congress. It is still very early days for the complicated political arithmetic to start making sense but then this is what coalition politics is all about.
Arunnehru89@yahoo.in
Nehru is a former Union minister