Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is scheduled to meet US President Barack Obama on Thursday and is likely to discuss a civil nuclear cooperation deal very similar to the Indo-US nuclear deal negotiated in July 2005. Echoing this possibility, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote on October 6, “The White House is also exploring what could be a diplomatic blockbuster — an accord might eventually open a path towards a Pakistani version of civil nuclear deal ….” This created an uproar in the media. How far is it possible? Are the geopolitical conditions favourable for such an accord? To accomplish the objectives of the July, 2005 Indo-US joint statement was not an easy task for the US President since Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act 1954 restricts nuclear trade only with countries that are signatories to the Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and India is not one of them. The US had to enact The Hyde Act 2006 specifically to enable the President to negotiate a nuclear deal with India with several stringent clauses in the Act that badly hurt India’s sovereignty and independence innuclear technology.Still, both the countries went out of their way to seal the civil nuclear cooperation agreement in 2008. Whether Pakistan and the US would follow the same tedious path of adjustments and compromises is to be seen.
Firstly, India is an economically strong and steadily fast-growing country that needs huge electrical power for its industries. For this, India was intending to import conventional fossil fuel as well as uranium for its nuclear reactors, which was being denied to it under global sanctions. India wanted sanctions to be lifted. At the same time, India had been negotiating for Iranian gas while the US had tightened the Iran-Libya-Sanction Act 1996 by remodeling it and naming it as Iran Sanction Act 2006. The US was, therefore, desirous of dissuading India from Iranian gas deal and in return, it was willing to offer the fuel and technology for India’s nuclear reactors that were then operating much below their rated capacity. Secondly, the US planners had estimated that nuclear cooperation with India would generate about 2,50,000 high tech jobs in the US – a very desirable achievement. Thirdly, after the 1998 nuclear tests, India had already entered the exclusive five-member nuclear club and the US was keen to contain India in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The world had also appreciated that despite acquiring nuclear strategic capabilities, India had shown great restraint in its nuclear policy and having declared voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing and No-First-Use of nuclear weapons, it had reinforced its sincerity for world peace and adherence to nonproliferation doctrine. Fourthly, the US wanted to check China emerging as a regional power in Asia and a responsible nuclear State like India was its best candidate.
Even with such a mutually beneficial deal, it was after a prolonged debate in both the countries that the 123 Agreement was signed in 2008 and the NSG exemption was granted paving the way for India to enter global civilian nuclear trade. It ought to be remembered that during this process, India had compromised even its sovereignty in the interest of country’s future development. Indeed, soon after the NSG waiver, India rushed to various countries seeking cooperation for supply of nuclear fuel and now its power reactors are running at full capacity. Undoubtedly, it could not have been achieved without the US support but in the bargain, India committed itself to purchase expensive nuclear power reactors from the US and other countries, although it has mastered the technology of setting up power reactors and had indigenously constructed several. Pakistan has all along opposed the nuclear deal but at the same time, demanded a similar arrangement from the US for itself. Any such deal with Pakistan was flatly refused by the US Administration under President George Bush declaring that India was a special case. However, this demand from Pakistan continued to appear from time to time but now, when the Pakistan Prime Minister holds talks in the US, the issue will certainly be raised. The Obama administration has neither denied this possibility nor admitted it which indicates that the present US administration may not be so hostile as it was in the past under President George Bush. The path is rough and the journey is tough for a US-Pak nuclear deal. First and foremost, Pakistan is known to have acquired nuclear weapons in the most clandestine manner through its discredited scientist AQ Khan. It is also known that Pakistan has further passed on the illacquired technology to other countries by violating the non-proliferation doctrine and acting in the most irresponsible manner. Pakistan has blatantly declared its intention to use nuclear weapons against India even for boundary skirmishes. Its nuclear doctrine is war-oriented and its weapons are not under civilian control.
It has not adopted restraint-oriented policies of No-First- Use (NFU) and No- Further-Test (NFT) of its nuclear weapons unlike India. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal includes even small-size tactical weapons that are not for deterrence and can easily reach private hands of terrorists. Hence, Pakistan cannot be trusted for world peace with its nuclear weapons which it will neither curtail nor cap. Secondly, Pakistan is economically so weak that it cannot afford to buy nuclear reactors without heavy subsidies. Hence, the world nuclear traders would have no business interest in such a country. Thirdly, Pakistan is a well-known host of terrorists. Fourthly, the US has witnessed the political disloyalty of Pakistan which has now become an ally of China despite the huge grants it has been receiving from Washington. Fifth, Pakistan is politically an unstable country with a weak name sake democracy and strong military control over its policies. Sixth, it does not have any lobby in the US to support its cause unlike the Indian Diaspora that is strong intellectually and financially and is contributing substantially to the US economy.
Finally, Pakistan has also not signed the NPT and as such, the US President is handicapped to negotiate with it any nuclear deal unless another enabling legislation like the Hyde Act 2006 is enacted. Under such circumstances, it would be a miracle if the US Congress, Senate or even the general public supported any civil nuclear deal with Pakistan.
The author is a Practising lawyer and a retired scientist, formerly with BARC, Mumbai and IAEA, Vienna. Email: drbbsingh2010@gmail.com