The first major polls of 2016 have long-term implications for national politics. A virtual mid-term poll coinciding with completion of the BJP-led NDA’s two years at the Centre, the results have a sobering message for the political players. The voters of the four states and one union territory have once again demonstrated their sagacity.
For the BJP, it’s a good political harvest after an electoral drought last year. With a resounding victory in Assam, it has registered its presence in the North East. It has also opened its account in Kerala and won a few seats in West Bengal. Its vote share, especially in Kerala, is creditable. It can now legitimately claim a pan-Indian presence.
The BJP projected a popular tribal leader as its chief ministerial candidate in Assam and left its local unit to lead the campaign, a change in strategy that paid rich dividends. A strong central leadership and credible state leadership combination seems the recipe for its success.
The Congress, on the other hand, lost more than what the BJP gained. It has lost power in Assam and Kerala despite the reasonably charismatic chief ministers. A Congress supporter could explain away the defeats as representing the regular cycle of change in Kerala and a decade and a half of ruling Assam. The fact remains that the Congress is left clutching on to Karnataka and five smaller states in the north and North East. It can be argued that Punjab, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan offer it a chance to challenge the incumbents but there is a huge question mark over its preparedness to seize the initiative. Its national leadership does not appear to inspire confidence and its state-level teams have little autonomy and an overdose of infighting. This is not the best framework for a party planning to take on a government.
With each passing day, the Congress seems to be surrendering the opposition space to state-based parties. Since its defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, it has faced a string of humiliating losses in state assembly polls or tagged on to a state-based party as a junior. In Bihar it rode to victory on JD(U)-RJD coattails. In West Bengal, its alliance with the Left produced little traction though it can take solace in emerging as largest opposition group. In Tamil Nadu, the alliance arithmetic did not add up, as the political chemistry was neither visible nor viable.
The victory of the two regional satraps — both fiery women — created history of sorts, by going it alone and bucking anti-incumbency. For Didi, the political honeymoon has not ended even after five years as CM. The fact that she unseated the Left last time, after its more than three decades in power cannot be forgotten. In terms of rhetoric, she has proved more ‘left’ than the Left. Given the strong support she garnered in rural Bengal this time, voters would now look for rhetoric to be translated to reality. Amma managed to achieve what only her mentor MGR was famous for: being voted back to power after a term in office. The split in the anti-AIADMK vote and especially the role of the PMK in this regard was a key factor in the AIADMK victory. Still, it is not the landslide victory that Tamil Nadu is famous for and the state assembly will have a numerically formidable opposition.
The Kerala verdict provides some solace to the Left which suffered a humiliating defeat in Bengal. A scam-tainted UDF and the presence of the BJP worked to their advantage. The BJP’s vote share indicates it was a key player in many seats that tilted the balance in favour of the LDF. While the LDF may have lost a chunk of the Ezhava vote to the BJP, it managed to garner a segment of the minority vote as it was perceived to be in a better position to challenge the BJP than the UDF.
Dr Sandeep Shastri is a keen observer of politics and the Pro Vice Chancellor of Jain University