Trump’s win is an unequivocal expression of public sentiment against mainstream politics and politicians. This cuts across political systems across the world today. In retrospect, it is clear that Trump gave expression to the frustrations of common Americans by viciously attacking the political establishment
Donald Trump’s amazing victory will go down in electoral history as one of the most stunning successes forcing pollsters, media analysts and political commentators to make desperate attempts at post-event rationalisation! How does one explain Trump’s grand entry to the White House in spite of the many odds that were stacked against him? The mainstream media in the US opposed his candidature. He was characterized as a loose cannon and a slew of charges of personal misconduct were unleashed against him during the campaign. Despite this, the manner in which he captured the type of support he did merits a deeper analysis of this electoral verdict.
Beyond a shadow of doubt, Trump’s victory is an unequivocal expression of public sentiment against mainstream politics and politicians and this cuts across political systems across the world today. The deep cynicism with the way the political elite manipulate and manoeuvre the levers of power has been expressed in multiple ways by citizens. This was clearly the main plank of Trump’s campaign. He clearly articulated the public’s frustration with the yawning gap between promise and performance, expectations and experience, rhetoric and reality. Being from outside the “political class”, he was able to voice the long-standing public distrust with what can be termed “conventional politics” and the “archetypal politician”. In fact, in one of the presidential debates, Trump stated with a chuckle, that he never thought a day would come when he would describe himself as a “politician”.
At every stage, Trump managed to do what a lot of commentators and observers thought was neither possible nor practical. He has now proved all the skeptics wrong. He was not expected to win the Republican nomination in what was an extremely crowded field, but successfully sidelined each of his adversaries one after the other. The bigwigs in the party grudgingly accepted him as the Republican nominee and continued to raise questions about the future of the party with him as their presidential candidate. Not only did he make light of this lukewarm support from within his party, he took the battle to the camp of his Democratic opponent.
In retrospect, it is clear that Trump gave expression to the frustrations and anxieties of common Americans by viciously attacking the political establishment. His campaign revolved around the promise to fix a system which he charged was managed by those who were prisoners of their own political machinations. This was clearly lapped up by a segment of the American voters who clearly believed that there was a deep barrier between the common people and the professional politicians. An important snippet of information that the exit polls were beaming as one waited for the trends to emerge was the fact that a significant segment of the voters stated that they voted to usher in change.
In some ways, Trump’s victory also reflects the deep social and economic divisions which have clearly emerged in American society. Post-election analysis will clearly indicate that Trump drew the bulk of his support from white Americans with limited access to higher education and those experiencing economic stagnation. On the other hand, his opponent Hillary Clinton was not able to enthuse the African-American voters, Latinos and women to turn up to the voting booths in sufficient numbers to propel her to victory. In one of the closest fought battles in recent times, the difference between victory and defeat lay in the capacity of the candidates to rally their social constituencies to come out and vote in their favour. Preliminary reports indicate that Clinton was unable to retain the support that Obama has secured among the minorities, especially the Latinos and African-Americans.
What are the wider implications of a Trump victory for India? Trump did make a conscious attempt to reach out to the Indian diaspora in the US. He even praised the current Indian leadership for being “reform oriented” as he realized the extent of support the Indian Prime Minister enjoys among the diaspora. His “Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar” slogan was a shrewd tactic to garner votes where and when it mattered.
Past experience has shown that a change of guard in the US does not necessarily adversely or favourably impact bilateral relations. The ties are often a by-product of a range of international developments and how the US perceives its interests in that context. Three issues merit attention in this regard.
Firstly, it would be interesting to see if Trump’s approach to fighting terror and Islamic fundamentalism would have any impact on how he deals with Pakistan. Secondly, his promise to focus much more attention on domestic politics may have a natural impact on the way he conducts foreign policy. Finally, how he takes forward his immigration policy would be closely watched and would have important implications for how he is perceived in India.
Trump’s victory speech was marked by a graciousness which one did not see much during the campaign. He has promised to “bind the wounds of division”. The just concluded campaign has exposed the deep social and economic cleavages in American society and the bitterness of the campaign was very much a reflection of this division.
The viciousness with which the supporters of the two candidates acted towards the rival camp was proof of the deep divisions and dissensions that American society has come to represent. Will the statements that Trump made as part of his campaign still evoke divisiveness or will Trump pursue politics of unity and reconciliation? The first few weeks of his presidency will provide the answers.
Sandeep Shastri
is a keen student of politics and the pro vice-chancellor of Jain University