As we approach 2017, the big losers of this year are the Syrians reeling under a brutal war, the humanity which could not mobilise against it, and the international order which is unable to stop the carnage or even relieve human suffering.
The big winners are the Turks who have vanquished not only a secretive cult’s heinous coup attempt, but also the history of coups in the political history of a country which could either be the fault-line between the East and West or more naturally the seat of their convergence.
Globally, the two most-watched events were the Brexit referendum and the US elections. Together they tell only part of a much bigger story that is likely to continue playing out in the year ahead and beyond.
That story is the near-collapse of the political middle and the underlying political consensus in the so-called West since the 2008 global economic crisis.
Vast inequalities must be corrected both within countries and among them. However, we do not seem to be heading towards a new deal that addresses inequalities. Instead, there is a surge of electoral outrage which rewards hollow slogans.
The political rhetoric in many Western democracies abuses the legitimate concerns of some of those left behind. Enter the Brexit, Islamophobia, anti-migrant agendas, anti-EU parties, anti-Semitism and a host of political leaders that are no longer constrained by globalisation’s golden jacket of being a good-boy centrist. In the words of John Judis, there are “tears in the fabric of accepted political wisdom.”
The storm is not over either. The banking system in Europe is scruffy and emboldened populists are smelling blood on the road to the upcoming elections in various EU countries. What these parties espouse as democratic demands, run against the democratic norms that Europe has always argued to exemplify.
The gold standards of unity in diversity, free movement of persons, capital and goods and services, open society embracing talent from around the world, humanitarianism, secular world-view that is not at odds with people of different faiths and other such high-horse principles, may no longer form the uncontested accepted political wisdom. Votes have been won by a tactic not by the force of arguments. The tactic is simple: Take a woe; turn it into a political slogan; inflate it to the point of absurdity; and in doing so lie and mislead at will.
At an age when everyone can google and check the accuracy of a statement, benefit from the fact that hardly any of your voters do. The impulse of damaging oneself is strong: Turkey with the most vibrant large economy in Europe is being left out of a stagnating EU. The same EU is asking Turkey to loosen her definition of a terrorist and doing everything to damage the very deal on Syrian migration that has already saved many lives and eased the pressure on Europe. There used to be sagacious voices; they are now trying to figure out how to survive in this era of claptrap European political campaigns.
I remember Gil Scott Heron singing “revolution will be live” and I can’t help thinking we are watching one, but not getting it. We are heading towards a much different world than the one I grew up in. The Industrial Revolution 4.0 will be redefining the economy, probably again to the benefit of the West.
However, for Europe and the US to reap the benefits of a revolutionised digital knowledge economy, they will need to first re-balance their politics and preserve their democracies. That could be done not by giving in to extremities, but by genuinely listening to people yet leading them back to the gold standards.
Follow him on Twitter @akcapar