India’s has just missed another opportunity to China’s decisive and proactive diplomacy. The Communist nation has kickstarted a process for resolving the Rohingya crisis that has engulfed Myanmar since August. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s shuttle diplomacy between Yangon and Dhaka last week resulted in Bangladesh and Myanmar signing a deal for the repatriation of about 6,20,000 Rohingya refugees. Although several hurdles remain, this marks the inflection point in the crisis with China reinforcing its primus inter pares image in India’s so-called traditional sphere of influence.
Last week Myanmar’s Army Chief General Min Aung Hlaing visited China. And today, Aung San Suu Kyi begins her third visit to Beijing, thus endorsing China’s centrality in crafting the evolving tunes of the Rohingya requiem; requiem because given this deal’s loopholes and pitfalls, most refugees are likely to go down in history as stateless people.
However, China’s steadfast backing of Myanmar’s counter-insurgency operations on one hand and its role in the repatriation of Rohingya refugees on the other have triggered excitement. On 17 November for instance, a UN General Assembly resolution condemned the Myanmar military for leading “systematic violence and abuse of human rights”. And China was the most prominent of the 10 nations which stood against the resolution. India was among the 26 abstentions; 135 nations voted in favour.
The US, the UK and organisations like the Amnesty International have accused Myanmar of “ethnic cleansing”, triggering speculations of International Criminal Court proceedings against the Myanmar generals. Meanwhile, India last week held the IMBAX-2017 India-Myanmar Bilateral Military Exercises at Meghalaya. India was known for its anti-junta campaigns during 1988-1992 and for being the strongest pillar of support for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movement and Suu Kyi. Now, it looks like the country’s de-facto leader is clearly missing India’s unequivocal support and leadership in this matter.
China, which never meddles in the internal affairs of other nations, had proposed a three stage plan—ceasefire on ground, dialogue on repatriation, reconciliation and reconstruction. It also promised to provide funds for reconstruction. China’s credibility in financing, building, delivering and managing mega projects in South Asia provides Beijing’s a clear edge over India. Not to be left behind, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono and British International Development Secretary Penny Mordaunt visited Dhaka last week extending $18 and $16 million respectively for ensuring basic facilities for Rohingyas. Malaysia has just set up a 50-bed hospital at the cost of $1.5 million per month.
Pope Francis is also visiting Yangon and Dhaka this week. He has held meetings with Suu Kyi and General Min Aung Hlaing. According to the Catholic Myanmar Church, 1,50,000 of the total 7,00,000 Catholics in the country had registered to attend the Pope’s Mass at Yangon’s Kyalkansan sports complex Tuesday. In Bangladesh, over 2,20,000 of the total 3,50,000 Catholics are expected to attend a similar congregation today. The Pope may have avoided mentioning the Rohingya issue in public while in Yangon, yet he started his trip with a Vatican Sunday Mass for Rohingyas and will hold a meeting with the refugees in Dhaka.
India had started Operation Insaniyat from mid-September only after Bangladesh expressed its displeasure. India’s move also coincided with the US announcing a $28 million aid for Rohingyas. India’s promised deliveries of 7,000 tons of food and family relief packs have no doubt seen some acceleration. But it still looks like India is missing in action.
India is home to over 28 million Christians including about 20 million Catholics. In spite of efforts by the Catholic Bishops Conference of India, New Delhi has decided not to host Pope Francis whose visits to Yangon and Dhaka are already making headlines. India also celebrates over a millennium-long connect with Islam since the Arab traders in 7th century first landed in Malabar and Konkan-Gujarat. India is home to over 170 million Muslims.
India’s connections with the Rohingya can be traced to the late 19th century when Indians went to Burma after it was integrated with British India after the Second Anglo-Burmese war (1852-53). Myanmar asserts that the Rohingya identity is a political construct by ‘Bengalis’ suggesting the refugees belong to what is Bangladesh today.
India is also called the world’s capital of refugees as it hosted the displaced people from China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. But its perspectives on Rohingya have marked a clear drift from its traditional stance. India has described 40,000 Rohingyas in India as ‘illegal migrants’ who must be deported.
When the decision was challenged in the Supreme Court, it declared them a threat to national security. When Prime Minister Modi visited Yangon in early September, it was the ideal time to take the lead. But Modi had simply underlined how India shared Myanmar’s concerns over “extremist violence” in Rakhine assuming that taking a hard stance of either supporting or condemning the Myanmar state would push it towards China.
Analysts say China is intervening in the Rohingya crisis to protect its investments pertaining to resource extraction and gas pipelines in Myanmar.
But India too has similar interests to protect: India’s construction of a deepwater port at Sittwe, its Kaladan multimodal transport project, peace in the Northeastern region and above all, its image as the world’s largest democracy with an impeccable record of hosting refugees. All these call for a serious rethink on India’s engagement with the Rohingya crisis.
Swaran Singh
Professor, School of International Studies, JNU
Email: ssingh@jnu.ac.in