Ever since the Karnataka voters elected a new Legislative Assembly, not a day has passed without a new political intrigue or a dramatic turn of events. A government was formed and soon collapsed. Alliances remain shaky and constantly on the edge. The latest set of episodes in the political drama is the talk of resignation of MLAs in order to tilt the majority in favour of either the BJP or help the Congress-JD(S) alliance maintain its wafer-thin majority. The unpackaging of ‘Operation Kamala 2018’ has been in the ‘breaking news’ segment for long, leading one to wonder whether it is more a matter of conjecture than of operational reality!
What are the key factors that need to be considered in this tantalisingly unpredictable political drama? ‘Operation Kamala 2018’ seems to be caught in its own contradictions. Karnataka is one state where the BJP’s national and state leaderships are not in sync. The party’s national leadership would like the present coalition government in the state to stutter along till the Lok Sabha polls, in the hope that they would be able to draw maximum political mileage both nationally and specifically in Karnataka. They could project Karnataka as an example of how an anti-BJP alliance would function and hope for a sympathy wave in the state. Engineering the collapse of Karnataka’s coalition government would snatch away any advantage that the party could hope for with an approaching national election.
On the other hand, the BJP’s state leadership is desperate to dislodge the present coalition, for multiple reasons. There has been talk of the JD(S) (at least the CM) weighing the option of aligning with the BJP. In such an eventuality, the BJP would be forced to play second fiddle and the party would have to remain content with the deputy chief ministership. Alternatively, if the Lok Sabha polls were to be held with the coalition continuing to be in power, the post-election developments could well be beyond the control of the BJP state party president. His chances of continuing to be the CM candidate of the BJP will gradually diminish. This, to an extent, explains his desperation to take ‘Operation Kamala 2018’ to its logical conclusion. Yet, many in the BJP’s state unit (save the diehard supporters of the state BJP president) are also convinced that the political costs of ‘Operation Kamala 2018’ may be too high. The assurances that would need to be held out, the rewards that would need to be given and the compromises that would need to be accepted could well damage both the image of the party and its unity.
When ‘Operation Kamala I’ was launched in 2008, it cost the BJP dearly and many believe that the subsequent political convulsions that were witnessed in the party and government were on account of that.Thus, save for the BJP’s CM candidate and his core supporters, the enthusiasm for an ‘Operation Kamala 2018’ is limited to a select few, especially with national elections fast approaching. This emerging contradiction within the state BJP is reflected in its lacklustre performance in the urban local body elections and visible disinterest in snatching a seat from the coalition in the MLC elections. Despite being the single largest party in the House, the BJP has decided not to put up a fight in the Legislative Council elections, a clear indication of the party not being able to wrest the upper hand.
If the BJP faces internal contradictions, the Congress too seems to have its own share of problems. It does not seem to have recovered from the setback it faced in the Assembly elections. More importantly, in the name of ‘collective leadership’, factionalism seems to have come to the fore in the state unit. In the past, the Congress has worked as a united team only when the national leadership made it clear as to who is entrusted with the responsibility of leading the state unit. As long as Siddaramaiah was the CM, it was clear that he was in charge. After the Assembly polls, multiple players have emerged. Each leader is hoping to win the goodwill of the ‘high command’ and keen to outmaneuver the potential rivals. In the process, factionalism and disunity have come out in the open. The rebellion by a few party MLAs is a reflection of this trend, with each faction positioning itself to gain the maximum political advantage. The Cabinet expansion is yet another occasion for every faction to flex its political muscle. Unless the Congress decides to get its act together, the drift in the party would clearly express itself as more intense factional feuds and internal bickering.
The JD(S), which finds itself in the driver’s seat, hopes to make the best of the opportunity it has been provided with. With increasing infighting in the Congress and a faction-ridden BJP, the JD(S) hopes to take advantage of the confusion and uncertainty in the ranks of its opponent and alliance partner. Its political stakes are limited to the state with the realisation that its role in any national formulation would be severely limited. The latest talk of an alliance between the Congress and the JD(S) for the Lok Sabha polls will lead to protracted negotiations over seat sharing. This will be only the first hurdle in this emerging multiple obstacle electoral race.
The developments in Karnataka draw attention to the fragility of party loyalty, especially in the Congress and the BJP. It is clear that the political compromises the two parties made while distributing party tickets in the recent polls (party hoppers accommodated, faction leaders getting their favourites in the list and winnability defined in questionable ways) has resulted in many of those elected ready to switch loyalties if the benefits of such a crossover are attractive. It raises questions on the internal dynamics of parties and the decision-making processes they follow. While seeking to boost their numbers in the Assembly they may have unwittingly opened the floodgates for floor-crossing that could have disastrous long-term consequences.
Sandeep Shastri
Pro-Vice Chancellor, Jain University and a political commentator
Email: sandeep.shastri@jainuniversity.ac.in