Of all the six election-bound states, Madhya Pradesh excites the most. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not a significant factor in Mizoram, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Chhattisgarh is perceived to be less significant while a possible change of government in Rajasthan would be a routine affair, leaving the electoral outcome in MP as the ultimate marker of gauging people’s mood with respect to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, the popular analysis concerning the electoral mood in the state is veering around a range of factors.
NON-ISSUES
BSP FACTOR: Much has been written about the significance of BSP and its possible impact upon the electoral outcome, particularly upon the Congress. Employing the data analysis of previous elections, many experts have already concluded that the Congress would suffer for not aligning with the Dalit party which commands a five-plus percent of transferrable Dalit vote.
However, that analysis suffers from erroneous assumptions on two counts. First, as the table shows, the BSP’s vote percentage is primarily on account of contesting nearly all seats rather than having a core and committed Dalit vote bank. In fact, a whopping 85% forfeited deposit seats suggests that the party neither has an organisational base, nor a core and committed vote. Secondly, even in areas adjoining Uttar Pradesh such as Chambal, Bundelkhand and Bagelkhand regions, where the party is considered to wield influence among the Jatavs, field insight suggests that a majority of Dalits in this area are veering towards the Congress on account of its higher winnability quotient.
HINDUTVA: Contrary to the popular perception that MP has been the hub of Hindutva as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has a strong organisation base in the state with a complex matrix of activism, particularly among the tribals, Hindutva is a non-issue. Though there are efforts to constitute it as the dominant fault line, as was obvious from Yogi Adityanath’s remark that the MP election is about “Ali vs Bajarangbali”, this articulation has few takers on the ground as demographically, Muslims constitute less than 7% of state’s population with Hindus making up 91%.
VYAPAM: There’s hardly a speech by a Congress leader that doesn’t mention the Vyapam scam against the BJP in general and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in particular. However, my study indicates the issue is already a matter of the past. In fact, it’s the local level corruption, at the level of revenue offices and Panchayats that has a bearing upon people across sub-regions.
SUB-REGION DYNAMICS: Dissecting the political dynamics at the sub-regional level and arguing why one region of a state may not necessarily have the same political trend as another is another line of explanation. Many analysts, again using past electoral data, are arguing that the populous region of Malwa, constituting 50 seats, would favour the BJP as it has been a saffron bastion and the RSS has a strong presence here. However, my study found a commonality of patterns in all regions with no sub-regional exceptionalism.
ISSUES
KISAN: First and foremost, the election is primarily about farmer’s angst. Across sub-regions, one finds a common resonance of farmers angst on account of a whopping price rise in inputs — irrigation, seeds, fertiliser and labour pay — with a low Minimum Support Price (MSP) despite the bonus by the state government. In fact, the farmers explicitly link demonetisation and the push for digital modes of payment as the prime reason for their precariat position. Modi, for a majority of farmers, is not the hope of aspiration anymore. Rather, his policies are seen as contributors to the woes of the farmers.
MAKAAN: Another factor is reach of the massive welfare measures that the state government has meticulously used among the subaltern section of the state, mainly Tribal and Dalits. The Pradhan Mantri Awaar Yojana- Gramin (PMAY-G) scheme which aims to provide a house for all sections living Below Poverty Line (BPL), has been invested with intensity and seems to have a corresponding electoral dividend, especially among the tribes as their anger over price-rise seems to have neutralised to a great extent. Similarly, customised welfare policies for women and female children also have a resonance.
MAHANGAYI: Price-rise is another factor binding the state. From farmers to lower middle class and petty businessmen, everybody recognizes the centrality of the issue and opines in favour of its electoral bearing. In particular, the exorbitant rise in petrol and diesel prices in general and other commodities on account of GST is cited as a popular deciding factor.
ANTI-INCUMBENCY: One couldn’t miss the undercurrent sentiment of change, even though it’s not overt. The sentiment was summed in the remark by Naveen Goswami a Brahmin labourer in Udyognagar at Indore in Malwa region, ‘Tawe Pe Roti Palatni chahiye nahi to jal jayegi’ (The bread should be turned before its burnt). With a varying degree, the same sentiment resonates across the state. However, people are not sure about the organisational and leadership capabilities of the Congress.