It is sad, unfortunate and unnecessary that the government has taken such drastic steps to repeal several clauses of Article 370 of the Constitution. Also, more concerning is the way that the government chose to do away with the clauses of the provision.
Articles 370 and 35A were provisions which granted special provisions to the people who were deemed permanent residents of the state. Article 370 was anyway hollow, resembling a fig leaf and had been diluted from time to time. Everything was peaceful and over the years, successive governments were managing to fulfil the actual purpose of introducing Article 370 in the Constitution - mainstreaming the Kashmiris while preserving their identity.
The dilution of Article 370 came twice, the first time in 1952 and again in 1954, in the same way that the proposal to repeal the Article came today - through a presidential order. In 1952, the amendment resulted in the abolition of monarchy in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The Basic Principles committee of the Constituent Assembly recommended the abolition of the monarchy, which was unanimously approved by the Assembly on 12 June 1952. In the same month, the Hindu-dominated Jammu Praja Parishad submitted a memorandum to the President of India demanding the full application of the Indian Constitution to the state. The Centre summoned a delegation from the state to Delhi thus came into being the Delhi Agreement.
Between 1956 and 1994, a total of 47 presidential orders have been issued with regard to Article 370 with the concurrence of the state government. Due to this, around 95 of the 97 subjects in the Union list have been extended to the state of Jammu and Kashmir.
The situation today in Jammu and Kashmir is the result of the lack of leadership in the state. The only real leader of the Valley is Dr Farooq Abdullah and even he did not react in a timely manner. Moreover, he and a few leaders from the state had met Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently and were assured that Article 370 will not be tinkered with. Even Governor Satyapal Malik had assured National Conference leaders that nothing was being planned in that front.
However, days later the Bill was introduced in Parliament. This shows a trust deficit between the state and the Centre.
Over the years, the trust between the state and the Centre has reduced and this will now result in no trust between Delhi and Srinagar.
Separatists like Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Mirwaiz Umar, who have been tweeting their thoughts on the abrogation of clauses of Article 370 should have taken a more pro-active stand. Geelani should have been in touch with Abdullah and I think Mirwaiz is now contemplating as to why he did not join Omar a long time ago.
Another aspect that the repealing of many clauses in Article 370 will have a significant impact on is the militancy in the state. Today's move and the government's decision to remove the provision by locking and breaking up the state will have devastating consequences.
The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill, 2019 seeks to divide the present state into two Union Territories. While Jammu and Kashmir will be one union territory with a Legislative Assembly, Ladakh will be the other union territory without a legislative assembly. The Bill proposes to have one lieutenant governor for each of the newly-formed union territories.
There will be a huge rise in violence and it will now not be limited only to South Kashmir or what we call the Valley. There might be violence on the border with Punjab. One really cannot know and predict.
Another key impact of today's decision is the rise of communalisation in the state. There is will be immense polarisation between Srinagar and Jammu. It will provide ripe conditions for our neighbour to make use of and try to disturb internal peace and law and order in the state with cross border infiltrations and ceasefire violations.
To conclude, I can say that it is a very sad and unnecessary decision taken by the government and it should now be ready to face some serious consequences. When former Union home minister P Chidambaram, who made some excellent points in Parliament today on the Bill, left office, he had said that his government had done extremely well to handle the situation in Jammu and Kashmir but had emphasised that his government had been very lucky.
Amit Shah now needs all of Chidambaram's luck and more to deal with the consequences of the government's actions.
(The writer is a former chief of the Research and Analysis Wing)