When the Bharatiya Janata Party failed to win a clear majority in the recent Maharashtra and Haryana assembly polls, party insiders bemoaned that though Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity remained undiminished, they had been let down by their state leaders.
These potshots were aimed at chief ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar, who could not deliver on their promise to sweep their respective states. Even as the BJP leadership is yet to come to terms with the fact that it was unable to form a government in Maharashtra and was forced to cobble together a coalition to retain power in Haryana, it is faced with the high probability of suffering another setback in the next round of assembly polls.
Though the BJP is putting up a brave face about its prospects in the forthcoming election in Jharkhand and Delhi, its leaders privately admit that the party faces an uphill task in both places. In contrast to the bravado displayed by the BJP in the run-up to the Maharashtra and Haryana elections, which it declared it would sweep, the buzz in the party today is that Jharkhand would throw up a hung assembly and that its chief competitor in Delhi is the Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP appears to be drawing solace from the fact that the Congress is virtually out of the race in Delhi.
According to the BJP’s internal assessment, Jharkhand Chief Minister Raghubar Das is in deep trouble, while Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is way ahead of his political rivals.
The five-phase election for 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand starts on November 30, while polls in Delhi are due early next year.
The BJP and its alliance partner, the All-Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), had registered a spectacular victory in 2014 by winning 47 seats. But five years later, Das has made himself highly unpopular with both his party workers and allies, primarily because of his brusque manner, a tendency towards centralisation of powers, and undermining of the party organization.
The result: the BJP’s Jharkhand unit is a house divided, while its allies have decided to go solo in these elections. The party’s senior leader, Saryu Rai, who was associated with the JP movement, snapped ties with the BJP and is contesting as an Independent. In another setback, the BJP’s chief whip Radhakrishna Kishore walked out and joined the AJSU.
Not only did the BJP fail to keep its flock together, it was unable to seal a deal with its oldest ally, AJSU. In addition, it has to contend with the decision of its Bihar partners, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the Janata Dal (U), to contest these polls on their own.
Undoubtedly, there is merit in the BJP contention that the LJP and JD(U) do not have a substantive base in Jharkhand, but their decision to chart an independent course strengthens the perception that all is not well in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, and that its senior partner is unwilling to accommodate its allies.
“It is clear that Raghubar Das failed to display the necessary flexibility which was required to deal with allies,” remarked a senior BJP leader.
While BJP president Amit Shah may well be working on a plan for the upcoming assembly polls, it is now clear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah’s gamble to pick chief ministerial candidates from non-dominant castes in Maharashtra and Haryana did not pay off.
In Haryana, the party ended up alienating the dominant Jat community when it elevated Manohar Lal Khattar, a non-Jat. In Maharashtra, the appointment of Devendra Fadnavis (a Brahmin) angered the Marathas, who have long wielded political and economic power in the state. And in Jharkhand, the BJP upset the large tribal population by handing over the reins of the state to Raghubar Das, a non-tribal.
The upshot is that Khattar had to tie up with the Jat-based Jannayak Janata Party in his second term, and Fadnavis is set to cede power to the Marathas with the Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress getting ready to stake claim to power in Maharashtra. No one is sure how the Jharkhand story will unfold in the coming weeks.
When Modi and Shah surprised everyone with their decision to choose Khattar, Fadnavis and Das as chief ministers, it was hailed as a brave move because the two leaders had discarded the old rules of the game and instead, dared to adopt an unconventional political route. Maybe, it is time for them to take a fresh look at their approach.