Modi-Xi Mamallapuram summit not purely informal

The 2017 Doklam incident had led to the 2018 Modi-Xi informal summit in Wuhan, a city made famous by Chairman Mao by swimming across the Yangtse river to prove his virility.
The Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and the President of the People s Republic of China Mr. Xi Jinping at Arjuna s Penance in Mamallapuram Tamil Nadu on October 11 2019.  (Photo | Special Arrangements)
The Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and the President of the People s Republic of China Mr. Xi Jinping at Arjuna s Penance in Mamallapuram Tamil Nadu on October 11 2019. (Photo | Special Arrangements)

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty
Former Secretary in MEA and ex-High Commissioner to Bangladesh. Currently 
a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research FoundationEmail: pr.chakravarty@gmail.com

The 2017 Doklam incident had led to the 2018 Modi-Xi informal summit in Wuhan, a city made famous by Chairman Mao by swimming across the Yangtse river to prove his virility. The informal Wuhan summit was PM Modi’s initiative and the build-up to the summit was carefully choreographed, with both China and India taking steps to keep temperatures down and avoiding steps that would cause any kerfuffle. 

The much-touted Wuhan “spirit” has evaporated substantially and the build-up to the Mamallapuram summit was marked by acrimony, primarily over Jammu and Kashmir. China has unequivocally backed its client state Pakistan on this issue and tried its best to internationalise it formally in the UNSC, though unsuccessfully.

China has continued to block India’s membership of the NSG and is a huge roadblock on UNSC reforms which could lead to a permanent seat for India in that body. On terrorism, China has backed Pakistan and dragged its feet on including Pakistani jihadi terrorists in the UN listing. It has continued to violate Indian sovereignty in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir by pushing its CPEC corridor and has done precious little to redress the growing trade imbalance with India.

Just prior to the summit, China hosted Pakistan’s army chief and PM Imran Khan and raised Indian hackles by mentioning the defunct UN Resolutions on J&K in the Joint Statement, along with the bilateral track, in the context of finding a solution. Just before the Imran Khan visit, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson had mentioned finding a peaceful solution via dialogue on the J&K issue. China’s quick change of tone led to a blunt rejection by the MEA spokesperson. India also cancelled the visit of the Chinese foreign minister, sending a clear signal of displeasure. 

The change in the constitutional status of J&K was a purely internal matter and had no territorial consequences. External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar had briefed the Chinese leadership during his visit to Beijing. Both China and Pakistan are in illegal occupation of parts of J&K. Unarguably, China’s action via-a-vis J&K damaged bilateral ties.

PM Modi won a second election and had a successful visit to the USA, crowned by the“Howdy Modi” event with President Trump. Pushing back at China, India raised the level of the Quad meeting to the level of EAM, a step that was carefully calibrated as a message to China. These actions prior to the Mamallapuram summit had signalled some uncertainty which was dispelled only 48 hours before the visit. Both countries have decided to remain engaged at the leadership level. The benefits of engagement far outweigh other options and this engagement has extended to plurilateral fora like BRICS, SCO and RIC.

The Mamallapuram summit’s outcomes may be limited, but it signals the desire of the two leaders to remain engaged despite differences. It is in the spirit of not allowing differences to become disputes. The choice of Mamallapuram is symbolic. The ancient port city was India’s maritime connect to China during Pallava rule over 2,000 years ago. Xuanzang (Huien Tsang) visited Mamallapuram in search of Buddhist documents, and Indian Buddhist monk Bodhidharma travelled to the Shaolin monastery in Henan province and lived there.

PM Modi has announced a new “Chennai Connect” with China during this summit. Both sides will attempt another reset in ties. India has announced the introduction of e-visas for Chinese citizens. This will encourage greater flow of tourists and build people-to-people contacts. A concrete outcome is an agreement to establish a joint mechanism at the minister’s level which will look at addressing the trade deficit, investments and other aspects of bilateral economic interaction.

According to Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale, J&K was not discussed, though President Xi briefed PM Modi on Imran Khan’s recent visit. PM Modi again reiterated the dangers of terrorism, which is an oblique way of pointing the finger at Pakistan. While China is not going to walk away from its alliance with Pakistan, it can leverage its considerable clout to influence Pakistan on its continuing patronage of jihadi terrorism.

The Chinese media has reported that 120 MoUs have been signed between private companies for the export of commodities like sugar, plastic chemicals, pharmaceuticals and fertilizers from India. Around 60 private Chinese companies will explore the Indian market for trade opportunities. This is not going to make much of a dent in the $53 billion trade deficit, but is a start. Trade and investment is likely to be a growth area. India can use Chinese investments in infrastructure in a transparent and negotiated bilateral framework.

Strategic communication between the two countries has been stressed again in the overall context of bilateral ties and in the domain of management of the LAC. The achievement of peace and tranquillity on the border has been a significant achievement over the years. Negotiations on the border will begin again soon. More CBMs in border management will be discussed. The defence ministers will also be meeting in the near future.

Stability in bilateral relations will be of mutual benefit and the informal summits certainly contribute to this objective. China is our largest neighbour and the combined population of the two countries is 2.7 billion. China’s rise as an economic power has been phenomenal, with its GDP now almost seven times that of India. While India’s rise is also inevitable, the yawning gap with China cannot be wished away. There is no space for fantasising about our foreign policy and realism, multi-alignment and hedging will underpin India’s strategic moves in the international arena.

President Xi will also visit Nepal, where the communist leadership has been cosying up to China and getting starry eyed about the Chinese “model” of development. Nepal is leveraging the China card and hopes to build a trans-Himalayan economic corridor. India will be watching closely China’s activities in Nepal. While China has been challenging India’s influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, there are limits to how much it can contain Indian influence and challenge India’s interests. Without a cooperative paradigm, the much-heralded Asian Century will be a chimera if conflicting interests are not managed wisely and cause India and China to be at loggerheads.

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