Speaking of surprises, the Kerala voter knows how to deliver one. If the Pala bypoll outcome has shaken a smug Congress, the ruling Left was pleasantly surprised to be winning an election at a time when it appeared it could do nothing right. Who would have thought an Assembly seat lorded over by the colossus of Kerala politics K M Mani for 54 years would be lost for his party the moment he was gone? Mani won 13 times in Pala, yet in the first election after his demise, people there chose to go with his rival — another Mani, but only in name, Mani C Kappan, a film producer and former volleyball player. He belongs to the NCP, an insignificant entity in Kerala with a shallow support base and leaders with deep pockets. Frankly, one isn’t sure if the national leadership of NCP even knows, or cares, that the party has won an election in a state called Kerala, somewhere south.
When the candidate of K M Mani’s influential Kerala Congress (M) fell short by fewer than 3,000 votes in Pala, the Congress-led UDF lost a seat that it believed was its to take, and at a time when it seemed it could do no wrong. One would think it’s the voter’s sense of humour that was at play. If not for its political significance, the result may seem wickedly funny, and could pass off as an attempt by voters to amuse themselves at the expense of parties — in a sort of reversal of roles. But then it has a serious message — never take voters for granted.
It was only four months ago that the CPM-led LDF was given a similar shock — an electoral beating that would have made its leaders, at least those who have been to school, recall the whipping they received for not completing homework. They did their homework this time and scored. On the other hand, the UDF, riding on its impressive show in the general elections, decided that it had already won and did nothing even when it appeared things might be slipping out of hand, what with Kerala Congress factions fighting open battles till the election and even beyond. The UDF was like that one-exam hero — the type that scores high in one and lives in its glory through the next couple. As for the BJP, the Kerala unit comes across as a student who studies hard but doesn’t know how to score.
Going into the next round of bypolls on October 21, the UDF is in disarray. The Congress in Kerala essentially is a collection of factions — as many as there are leaders and at odds with each other. After the parliamentary elections, if one expected them to bury their differences and chart a strategy to decimate the fallen enemy, what followed was an escalation of the fights within. It is now dealing with resentment over the selection of bypoll candidates. Ally Kerala Congress (M) is grappling with a potentially fatal internal feud. Muslim League, another partner, is facing rebellion, and its hold over Manjeshwar could slip this time.
The BJP camp, too, is a mess. The groupism-torn party seems to think only a couple of leaders are eligible to contest. And its most critical weakness is the thinking that it can only contest, not win. In Pala, its vote share fell sharply, giving traction to vote-tradeoff theories. During the Lok Sabha elections too, there were talks of mass transfer of BJP votes to rivals to manipulate the outcome. There can’t be anything more damaging to a growing party than this culture, if true.
For all its flaws, the Left front seems to be the only one that has a grip on its affairs. It took the general election drubbing in its stride and prepared for the next battle. And Pala showed it still has in it to succeed when least expected. But having lost a big chunk of support base, it has an impossible task of staying relevant, though it can count on the rivals to make its job easier. The UDF has everything to lose — four of five seats on offer were won by it in 2016, and going by the summer show, it can take all five. But then, there was a Pala in between. The LDF and BJP have only to gain. Whatever happens, one can’t be shocked. Such is the ability of the Kerala voter to surprise.
Kiran Prakash
Resident Editor, Kerala
kiranprakash@newindianexpress.com