A storm is headed former chief minister and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu’s way. The Jagan government last weekend constituted a 10-member special investigation team (SIT) with sweeping powers to investigate the various acts of omission and commission of the erstwhile TDP regime. It was waiting to happen and could be seen as a logical culmination of what began with the demolition of Praja Vedika – the government conference hall built in violation of rules on the banks of river Krishna – soon after assuming office by Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy. In other words, it is yet another step to unearth every illegality of the Naidu era and dismantle the carefully crafted image of the TDP chief for decades.
Though its mandate is expansive, the SIT is expected to focus mainly on the alleged insider trading in the capital, Amaravati region. The Cabinet sub-committee that enquired into it has already come up with circumstantial evidence enough to smell a rat – that some TDP leaders and their associates had privileged information well before the announcement of the capital to profit from it. The moot question, however, is, will it lead to Naidu’s doorstep? He maintains he hasn’t done anything wrong and calls the Jagan government vindictive. He appears to have steeled himself to the prospect of what lies ahead: the embarrassment of regular ‘revelations’, possible questioning of his party leaders and worse. But this is just one of his worries.
The recent income tax department raids on his former personal secretary and a few TDP leaders detected dubious transactions amounting to Rs 2,000 crore, adding grist to rumour mills that Central agencies are busy establishing the money trail from TDP coffers to his last year’s election-time allies in other States. Facing a pincer attack such as this from the State and Central agencies is perhaps a new challenge for him.
TDP insiders say their chief will weather this storm. The key for him, they admit, will be to keep the flock together since it is inevitable that simultaneous probes hitting at their financial roots will have a demoralising effect on TDP leaders, which is, perhaps, the reason for Naidu’s frequent protests and yatras against the Jagan government.
Galvanising the party, which still has 40% vote share, and striking at Jagan’s Achilles heel – controversy over his policies vis-à-vis investors – is one way of changing public perception. Would that be enough though? Political pundits are already writing epitaphs of his political career. Yes, he stands isolated with his apparent overtures to the BJP rebuffed. But to write him off could be a folly. The old war horse, not by any measure a mass leader, was at one time adept at striking the right alliances at the right time. In the last five years, he did stumble, joining even the Congress ranks at one stage, and paid the price for it. He might just bounce back if he could find himself back in the good books of the powers that be in New Delhi. It is certain that he is just waiting for an opportunity.
Jagan’s controversial moves, one after the other, Naidu hopes, will give him just that. The chief minister has more than enough on his plate right now. His immediate task is to make his three-capital plan materialise besides coming up with a good budget. Shifting to Visakhapatnam, the executive capital, in three months is surely the easier of the two. Finding the means to ensure smooth execution of all his welfare schemes is a difficult proposition with revenue growth and Central grants falling short of expectations. In addition to the welfare agenda, he needs to also address once and for all, increasing concerns of investors.
The recent controversy over the alleged move by Kia Motors to contemplate shifting out of Andhra Pradesh to Tamil Nadu was a big jolt. The problem is everything is being seen through the prism of state politics. The SIT probe will also add to the perception of a witch-hunt. To allay such fears and press forward calls for skillful statecraft. While the titanic struggle between the YSRC and TDP unfolds, the outlier in the State, BJP, is waiting in the wings to enjoy the spoils.