The high-decibel campaign for the Delhi polls on Saturday (February 8) has raised the stakes so hugely for the BJP that some think of only adverse consequences for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP if Arvind Kejriwal returns to power either unscathed or with numbers enough to form the government again.
But the BJP’s own hopes may be more realistic.
A decent number of 20 to 30 seats (compared to three in 2015) to emerge as a respectable opposition in a House of 70 could be more than a bonanza. In the event of the BJP even surprising and shocking its rivals by inching closer to the magic number (of 35-plus) or at a striking distance from power, it will be more than a political miracle. These are possibilities, but the BJP is acutely aware of the difficulties that stand in the way.
But Delhi cannot be a high priority for Modi, though his deputy Amit Shah has worked hard enough to enable the party to put up a stiff fight against the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Shah’s labour saw him and other senior Union ministers, BJP chief ministers and former CMs literally take to the streets to address even roadside meetings to woo voters, forcing a divided Delhi unit to close ranks.
Even as the debate raged on the ‘Shaheen Bagh versus Suvidha (freebies and facilities under Kejriwal rule),’ the BJP has, however, been deeply disappointed by a dismal campaign of the Congress.
So much so that there are many questions in the BJP circles. Did AAP’s poll adviser Prashant Kishor work out a deal between Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Congress leader Ahmed Patel?
This buzz got stronger as the campaign closed because even Congress star campaigners — Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra — set foot on the Delhi poll scene at the last minute.
The brother-sister duo touched only a few minority-dominated constituencies by holding a joint rally. Congress president Sonia Gandhi, earlier scheduled to canvas, stayed away due to ill health. Shah had hoped that the Congress would at least put up a good fight against AAP in 12 to 15 seats. Perhaps, it was the only one election in which the BJP would have wanted to the Congress to do well -- to split the anti-BJP votes. Of course, the Congress has officially denied any deliberate strategy to help out Kejriwal. Nevertheless, Congress insiders have conceded that it would not surprise them if Prashant Kishor (as a strategist for AAP) had indeed used his old leverage with Rahul or Priyanka to settle scores with his bête noire Amit Shah.
It is no secret that Kishor, who was once a close aide of Modi, had to part ways with the BJP after the 2014 parliamentary polls. This was due to the Union Home Minister putting down his plans to seek a bigger role for his outfit I-PAC in Modi’s regime. As he moved to Bihar, Kishor’s hopes of playing sport in the JDU-BJP alliance ahead of the assembly elections in Bihar were stymied by Nitish Kumar who showed him the door. Bihar is key to the BJP’s future. Nitish Kumar’s decision to reforge ties with the BJP is good news for Modi and Shah.
Nevertheless, Kishor’s suitcase is already full of tasks for Mamata Banerjee and M K Stalin ahead of the assembly polls in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, respectively. Of course, Kishore has managed to show — within a short time — that he has not only the ears and eyes of these leaders but also their parties’ financial resources, ruffling feathers in their hierarchy. Coming back to Delhi elections, Modi is certain that he and the BJP can survive political dents if the outcome favours the rivals though Shah may have to live with another setback after Jharkhand, which followed Maharashtra.
By all indications, the attention of the PM would be rather on political messaging of the Budget 2020-21. Even as his government seeks tangible economic results by the third and fourth quarters of the fiscal, Modi would want his party men to talk more about the Budget, its concerns for the poor, farmers, small traders and ease of everyone’s business. For his critics who think it is a tall order, Modi has ensured that the Budget had enough political messaging too — from Kashmir to India’s pre-medieval era. Everybody had heard
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her Budget speech last Saturday, quoting noted Kashmiri poet Dina Nath Kaul ‘Nadim’ saying that everything that the government does is aimed at benefitting the people of the country. But very few people know that Sitharaman ensured this poem was printed in the ancient Sharada script in the Budget copy. It is the oldest script of Kashmir, which, over the centuries, was neglected and died out.
Shekhar Iyer
The writer is a senior journalist. This column will appear every fortnight