With Assembly polls just eight months away, Bihar is ripe with speculation about the possible impact of political strategist Prashant Kishor’s intended intervention in the politics of the state. Much has already been written about the state electorate’s frustration with the prevailing political status-quoism and the absence of a credible alternative against the same. With Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar sounding more like a shadow of his past, the reluctance of the BJP to supersede him and the RJD’s consistent failure to strike a political chord beyond Muslims and Yadavs, the quest for a fresh alternative seems natural and desirable.
However, mere desirability and availability of a conducive ambience are not sufficient factors for a new political initiative to succeed, and Bihar is no exception. Bihar’s specificity: To expect that a new party or a front, which is neither an outcome of a movement nor being led by a charismatic leader, would be a gamechanger in Bihar requires a quantum leap of faith. A cursory look at the journey of political parties in this state would reveal the absurdity of hope behind Kishor’s intervention. While the Congress was naturally the dominant party in the state until the late 1960s, it took a consistent and decadal post-Independence movement by the socialist leaders, primarily Ram Manohar Lohia and Karpoori Thakur, for the establishment of a substantial opposition party in the state on the plank of non-Congressism. The same plank got a dynamic catapulting in the wake of the sustained anti-Emergency movement and the outcome was the state having the brief preponderance of the Janata Party from 1977 to 1980.
Similarly, the third moment of success for anti-Congressism in Bihar was facilitated by the Mandalisation of the state’s politics when the Janata Dal got entrenched under the leadership of Lalu Prasad Yadav since 1990; Lalu then went on to form his own party Rashtriya Janata Dal in 1997 after the notorious Fodder Scam surfaced. The BJP, which had been struggling to have a footprint in the state since 1980, had to wait until the 1990s; helped by the twin factors of the electoral decline of the Congress and the Ram Temple movement, it then emerged as the main opposition party. It took a Herculean effort by veteran socialist leader George Fernandes and his ally Nitish Kumar to see Samata Party, formed in 1994 and which subsequently became a part of Janata Dal (United), to taste credible electoral success—which happened from the 1999 Lok Sabha elections.
Further, post-2000s, the single-caste-centric parties like the LJP, RLSP, HAM(S) and VIP led by Ram Vilas Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Mukesh Sahani had more failure in their kitty than success. Besides, they signify more the decadent political culture of Bihar perpetually trapped in regressive communitarian dynamics wherein these leaders behave as the contractors of their sub-castes willing to change sides depending upon electoral incentives. Stumbling blocs: In this backdrop, Project PK is destined to be a failure in Bihar, both in the short-term and long-term scenario, electorally as well as politically. First, the grand claim of the proposed new alternative on the MBA-ised motto of Behtar Bihar with the claim of raising the minimalist aspiration of the people doesn’t seem to square up with efforts to rope in single caste leaders like Manjhi, Kushwaha and Sahani who change political sides at the drop of a hat. In fact, these leaders embody the malaise that Kishor intends to liberate Bihar from.
Further, given the constant rejection of these leaders by their own caste electorates in the recent elections, any flirtation with them is neither idealistic nor realpolitik. All it reveals is the sheer lack of political imagination and perhaps desperation by Kishor, his public denials of the same notwithstanding.
Secondly, the very talk of two charismatic leaders, Kanhaiya Kumar and Assaduddin Owaisi, and perhaps Prakash Ambedkar joining the new front led by PK, thereby galvanising the youth across caste and communities leading to them emerging as a better alternative to the hegemonic presence of the BJP-JD(U) coalition, suffers from the MAFA (mistaking articulation for action) syndrome. While both Kanhaiya and Owaisi are popular and talked-about leaders in the state, one among the youth and the latter among Muslims, to assume their popularity would translate into votes would be a case of sheer political ignorance.
Though AIMIM won its first Assembly seat in the October 2019 bypolls from the Muslim-dominated Kishanganj constituency, it was more an outcome of local factors than a sign of Owaisi’s appeal. In fact, in this paper, one of the authors of this article had provided a detailed account titled No takers for Muslim parties in Bihar (13 October 2015), of the Owaisi-led AIMIM’s failure to capture the imagination of the Muslim electorate in Bihar in the 2015 Assembly polls even in Muslim-majority constituencies in the Seemanchal region comprising Araria, Purnea, Katihar and Kishanganj districts, despite his high-pitch campaign, on account of it being seen as dividing the anti-BJP votes.
Similarly, the popular rallies that Kanhaiya has been addressing across Bihar to mobilise people against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act wouldn’t translate into a vote for the new front even if he were to join it, as voters in Bihar have been voting for parties on account of their higher winnability factor rather than grand claims.
This brings us to the crucial question as to who has a higher winnability quotient in the ensuing election in Bihar. That the BJP-JD(U)-LJP coalition led by CM Nitish is commanding the biggest social support base of upper castes, Banias, Kurmis and a majority of EBCs, besides the numerically significant Dusadhs, a Dalit sub-caste led by Ram Vilas Paswan, is beyond any doubt. Therefore, their comfortable victory in the October-November 2020 election is almost a given. Hence, the focus shifts upon the fight for the prime Opposition space. This brings PK’s initiative directly at loggerheads with the RJD, unless it also joins the proposed front, the likelihood of which is very low.
Therefore, driven by the winnability factor, if the anti-BJP voters in Bihar weigh options between the lacklustre RJD and the high-pitched PK front that is yet to take formal shape, the RJD is bound to be the beneficiary as the party still commands the support of the numerically preponderant Yadav electorate due to the caste factor and Muslims due to the trust factor. It gives the RJD a solid starting point vis-a-vis other claimants for the opposition space. This would act as a pool factor for the majority of other anti-BJP voters as people do not vote for a front that fares poorly in the winnability index. Also, the RJD and Tejashwi Yadav are a known face in the hinterland of Bihar unlike PK, who is more of a media sensation than a potent political personality. Therefore, in all likelihood, Bihar is going to witness a bipolar election between the BJP-JD(U)-LJP alliance and the RJD, wherein the former is likely to have a smooth sailing. The third front would be nowhere in the scene.
Kishor’s MBA-ised motto of Behtar Bihar with the claim of raising the aspiration of the people doesn’t seem to square up with efforts to rope in single caste leaders like Manjhi, Kushwaha and Sahani who change political sides at the drop of a hat. In fact, these leaders embody the malaise that Kishor intends to liberate Bihar from
Sajjan Kumar
Political analyst associated with People’s Pulse Email: sajjanjnu@gmail.com
Rajan Pandey
The author teaches political science at Christ University, Bengaluru