Has the peak begun and is that the reason for the surge in cases? The lockdown has been lifted for about a month now. People are allowed the freedom to move around. The surge in number, therefore, is anticipated. Whether this is a community spread or not, has to be declared by the Government of Karnataka. However, the responsible citizens must now do their bit.
Why is Bengaluru seeing many cases?
Post-lockdown lift has caused an increase in the number of cases. Of course, no one can be in lockdown forever. It is also necessary to have citizens exposed to the virus to develop immunity. Though the number of cases is on the rise, the mortality rate in Karnataka in particular and India, in general, has been significantly lower in contrast with the western countries such as the USA.
What should the government do?
We ask ourselves what the government should do. Fortunately, the government is doing whatever it has to do. One might wonder how the policies made in the previous week change the next. Examples are changing guidelines about treating asymptomatic patients initially to be admitted in the hospital, later to institutional (non-hospital) quarantine to currently home quarantining. This is not the inadequacy of the government; this disease is new. The changes have to be dynamically changing. The government’s think tank is robust and epidemiologists of repute are working in tandem with the bureaucrats; both supported by the ruling government. Changing guidelines is global.
Solutions to the rise in cases
The current policy of intermittent lockdown is correct and will abruptly cut the exposure for 24 to 36 hours, and is likely to slow down the viral spread. The containment of viral spread is more in the hands of the citizens than the government. This is time for us, the citizens, to show discipline.
Do we need to test more number of samples?
By testing more, one can identify asymptomatic patients and isolate them. By isolating them, the viral spread is curtailed. Pool testing is a cost-effective idea, where a group of people from say, an apartment, are sampled and tested as a single sample. Should the sample turn positive, only then individuals are tested. If not, the community can breathe a sigh of relief. However, there is a caveat here.
The Covid-19 test is only 70% true positive, the rest may be infected, but the results would be negative. To tackle this technical flaw, one has to continue to take basic precautions. One must understand that in India, currently, the number of patients who have recovered from the virus is more than those affected. The infection will pass. In about a year, the arrival of the vaccine would make a distinctive change, putting us back to our ‘original life’.
Dr Murali Chakravarthy
MD, Chairman, Central Infection Prevention and Control Committee, Fortis Hospital, Bengaluru