Strikingly different developments in the last fortnight have altered the political discourse in Karnataka, with a potential bearing on the 2023 state assembly elections. Just when the Bommai government was preparing to celebrate its first anniversary and hoping for smooth sailing ahead of the polls, the BJP suddenly appears to be a house on fire.
The party that boasts of discipline had to bear the brunt of its cadre, who took to the streets in protest after a BJP Yuva Morcha leader was killed in Dakshina Kannada. Ensuing developments like heckling of the state president by party workers, a resignation spree, and student wing members storming the Home Minister’s residence have all pushed the ruling party on to the backfoot.
So much so, ‘Janotsava’, a mega rally planned to celebrate the government anniversary and set the tone for the party’s election campaign, was cancelled hours before top central leaders were to land in Bengaluru. Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai did make efforts to salvage the situation.
Like in the BJP, the situation in Congress too changed drastically. The party that faced the fear of imploding managed to put up a good show of unity on stage during ‘Siddaramotsava’. Former CM Siddaramaiah’s 75th birthday celebration resembled more of an election rally, with him centre stage.
From cutting a ‘unity cake’ to DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah hugging on the dais -- albeit after being prodded by former AICC president Rahul Gandhi -- the optics were well managed.
However, translating that show of unity into real action over the course of the next six to eight months is a challenging task, especially with many of its leaders nursing chief ministerial ambitions. The party high command, that sees some hope for the party’s revival in Karnataka, seems to be ensuring that competition over the CM’s post won’t derail the party’s prospects.
The Congress strategy will be to show that the leadership is united, backward classes and minorities are with Siddaramaiah, Lingayats will back the party and DK Shivakumar will be able to get Vokkaligas’ support. Former Minister MB Patil’s appointment as campaign committee chief and Rahul Gandhi’s visit to Lingayat mutt seems to be part of the party’s efforts to woo Lingayats, as their support will be crucial to tilt the balance in favour of the party, especially in Central and North Karnataka.
It will be interesting to see how Congress central leaders rein in the Siddaramaiah camp, that is gung-ho after the massive show of strength, as unnecessarily raising their pitch could result in discomfiture among Shivakumar’s followers. The real action is likely to be seen during ticket distribution. While averting such a situation will be top priority for the Congress central leadership, with many internal flare-ups that need to be doused, the ruling BJP will be looking for immediate course correction to change public perception as well to re-energise its cadre.
Sudden developments that caught BJP state leaders unawares also exposed chinks in its armour ahead of the big battle. The party will have to take a hard look at its election preparedness and use every available option to fix things, to get the wind under its sails. Former CM BS Yediyurappa’s recent meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah indicates that the Lingayat strongman is likely to play a bigger role in electioneering, and there is a buzz about some changes in the party organisation.
However, exigencies that cropped up suddenly in the past few days may put the party on the defensive if it is contemplating any rejig in the ministry. If it goes ahead and inducts a few new faces, those who failed to make it may end up sulking, and add to the woes of the party. The BJP will certainly weigh all options. Putting the government on fast-track mode and taking the cadre into confidence will be its immediate priority as it prepares a roadmap for the 2023 polls. Given the strong central leadership and party’s ability to win elections, BJP will be looking to convert the current crisis into an opportunity.
While national parties will be busy assessing changes in political dynamics and preparing strategies for the big battle, the Janata Dal (Secular) is focused on retaining its hold in Old Mysuru, while hoping to win some seats in other parts. It may even hope to benefit from Siddaramaiah’s growing assertion within the Congress, as it helps to retain its support base among the Vokkaliga community. The community may fully back Congress only if it sees Shivakumar as a potential CM candidate.
With the fast-evolving political scenarios, the next few weeks will signify how things are likely to pan out ahead of the 2023 polls.
Ramu Patil
Associate Editor
ramu@ newindianexpress.com