Myanmar issue bad news for act East thrust

With the Chinese entrenching themselves firmly in Myanmar’s economy and defence, Indian worries over the security implications for its sensitive Northeast will grow.
Illustration: Sourav Roy
Illustration: Sourav Roy

If Sri Lanka’s economic collapse was bad news for India, Myanmar’s escalating conflict and economic downslide would prove to be worse. Since the February 2021 military takeover and the brutal suppression of what initially was a peaceful protest movement for democracy, armed resistance groups have proliferated in the ethnic Bamar (Burman) regions seen as the heartland of Myanmar. These groups have linked up for tactical reasons with the longstanding ethnic rebel movements like those of the Kachins, Karens and the Shans, the Was and the Kokangs, stretching the Burmese army Tatmadaw more than ever in the recent past.

With the loosely grouped People’s Defense Forces organising regular attacks on the Tatmadaw in the Sagaing region bordering India’s Northeast, the states of Manipur and Mizoram are faced with a rising flow of refugees.

More than 30,000 refugees from Myanmar are already believed to have entered these two states. They include at least 50 lawmakers of the Myanmar parliament, mostly belonging to Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) which had swept the 2019 national elections and was set to form a government a second time.

The PDF insurgents owe allegiance to the National Unity Government (NUG), which claims to be the “real government of the Myanmar people”. Since the NUG has not only representatives from leading parties like NLD but also from powerful civil society groups and ethnic organisations, it has come to be seen as a broad-based national movement for change, with most looking up to it for leadership as Suu Kyi is in prison and her jail term has been extended by six years.

While discussing the NUG’s agenda, its foreign minister Zin Mar Aung recently told this writer that “our struggle now is to oust the military from politics and take the country towards democracy”. Madame Aung has been strongly lobbying with Western democracies as well as India and ASEAN to facilitate a dialogue to restore the parliament and send the army back to the barracks. Since there has been little progress in that direction and the ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus has failed to achieve a breakthrough, young Burmese have taken to arms in a desperate effort to fight the military and force it out of power. The Tatmadaw is badly stretched, and morale in the lower echelons is dropping, as evident from rising defections. However, it still has enough firepower to pound the PDF and other ethnic rebel armies. With strong support from China and Russia, the military junta feels it can just about hang on.

Myanmar’s economy is on the verge of collapse, though the military junta is not forthcoming with data about foreign exchange reserves. But panic has gripped Myanmar over the growing likelihood of a Sri Lanka-type economic collapse after the country’s central bank called on all citizens this month to convert their foreign currency holdings and remittances received from abroad into the local currency kyat. Myanmar’s foreign reserves are believed to have dwindled sharply, and foreign debt has escalated as Western sanctions following the Feb 2021 coup and the raging Covid pandemic have adversely impacted the nation’s economy.

But the country’s military rulers continue to sign up for more and more Chinese-funded infrastructure projects and allow Chinese companies to take over mines and other profitable businesses. That is the hope that the Chinese will bail them out in a Sri Lanka or Pakistan-type crisis. Burmese fighters opposing the military rule are increasingly targeting Chinese business interests. Even other foreign investors are pulling out of the country. For India, the deteriorating situation in Myanmar has three immediate impacts.

One, Indian connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Corridor are not likely to be completed anytime soon. Already behind schedule, the escalating conflict across the country has made it impossible for Delhi to complete these projects. India’s much-vaunted ‘Act East’ policy cannot be taken forward without these projects unless the situation stabilises in Myanmar. The country’s return to democracy in the last decade has raised hopes for India to use it as the land bridge to the rest of Southeast Asia, but the 2021 coup and the severe breakdown of law and order have torpedoed that hope. ‘Act East’ through the Northeast will never be possible without a peaceful Myanmar.

Second, the escalating refugee problem will have an adverse impact on the Northeastern states, taxing their limited resources. It will also complicate bilateral relations as PDF and ethnic rebels seek to use the Indian states to launch attacks or procure weapons. Locals in Mizoram and Manipur may support them, but Delhi does not want to upset the Burmese military junta because it fears that it will drive it further into the Chinese embrace. That may cause friction between the Centre and the Northeastern states.

Third, as the Burmese military junta wilts under growing global pressure, collapsing economy and mounting insurgencies, it will draw closer to China, which strongly backs the junta. The military regime has already cleared 15 mega infrastructure projects funded by China since the February 2021 coup, drawing Myanmar into a substantial Chinese debt trap. The Burmese generals are totally dependent on Chinese support to protect their back at the UN and in other global forums. With the Chinese entrenching themselves firmly in Myanmar’s economy and defence sectors, Indian worries over the security implications for its sensitive Northeast will grow.

The Mexican president recently called for a more significant Indian role alongside the UN and the Pope in global peace diplomacy. If there is one area where Delhi could try that out, it is Myanmar. It has so far backed the ASEAN by supporting its Five Point Consensus and adopted a wait-and-watch approach. Since that has not cut much ice, India could try out a Gandhi Peace Mission in Myanmar to explore the possibilities of starting a comprehensive dialogue involving all stakeholders. An aspiring regional power cannot just sit back and watch a crucial neighbouring country slip into absolute chaos.

Ex-BBC correspondent worked in Myanmar and authored books on regional conflicts

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