“I believe,” said a source, “that Pawan Kalyan will part ways with the BJP in February.” Why February of all the months? Is it because there is a certain Valentine’s Day?! I couldn’t help laughing but my good friend assured me it is not and confidently whispered a few numbers – details of a pact already in final stages to be sealed in the New Year between the superstar and the ageing Machiavelli, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu.
Though he is a veritable mine of information, experience teaches that one has to apply the principle of uncertainty when it comes to politics, for, it can be as mystifying as quantum mechanics. So, despite the source’s reliability, for all we know, the pact, as of now, may be, may not be. Like Schrodinger’s cat, it is alive and dead at the same time.
But one thing is certain. The answer to this question rests as much on the two sides as the outlier, BJP. By Pawan’s own admission, the BJP is yet to draft him a script for 2024. It hasn’t been forthcoming though the saffron party keeps singing in Alfred Doolittle’s style that it is willing to tell him, wanting to tell him and waiting to tell him. Understandably, the actor-turned-politician’s patience is wearing thin. After all, 2024 is a do or die battle for him after his ignominious loss in 2019.
Even if the BJP gives him the roadmap, it is foolhardy to go by it. What possible map could it draw for him when the party itself is a non-entity in the state? Common sense dictates that he align with the TDP so that he could at least make it to the assembly and win a few seats for his party. His die-hard fans may argue that the star is self-effulgent but that assumption proved disastrous. They ought to understand that his leap forward from Che Guevara to Narendra Modi was a tactical move to be relevant. Since the purpose has been served, it’s time to once again embrace his former friend.
It isn’t easy though. The saffron party is keen on making its presence felt by bringing the numerically strong Kapu community under its banner and it wouldn’t want to lose one of the most prominent Kapu leaders in the state i.e Pawan. This is the reason why Naidu is walking the extra mile to mend fences with the party. His recent foray into Telangana is clearly aimed at baiting the BJP. He is not mistaken in his belief that the TDP still has some cadre base in Telangana.
If he can get back leaders, who have left the party, he could boast of being a player once again in the state. And that would help him cut a bargain with the BJP, claiming he could add incremental value to the party which is moving heaven and earth to dethrone the Chandrasekhar Rao government. A TDP senior leader acknowledged in private that Naidu is in touch with the BJP top brass and that “talks are a work in progress.”
His ultimate objective is to bring onboard Pawan without ruffling the BJP’s feathers as he needs the actor in Andhra to take on YSRC chief YS Jagan Mohan Reddy.
But, alliances, no matter how well calculated, do not always win elections. The TDP needs a proper agenda to counter Jagan. Demonizing him day in and day out won’t work. In the last three-and-a-half years, Jagan has implemented several schemes come hell or high water. Yes, there is anti-incumbency but that is limited to urban pockets. In rural areas, he has popular support whether the TDP likes it or not.
Jagan’s policies on education and health, not to speak of the various direct benefit transfer schemes, have been working. The big mistake Naidu and his supporters make is to believe in their own propaganda and oppose everything for opposition’s sake. For instance, the introduction of English medium in government schools is a popular move. Dismissing such a policy outright is madness.
Similar is their obsession with Amaravati which in popular perception means nothing more than a real
estate venture meant to benefit a particular community. As a thought experiment, imagine what would have happened had thousands of crores been pumped into Amaravati. With coronavirus afflicting the global and national economy, and millions rendered jobless, Andhra would have plunged into a deep crisis. The DBT schemes helped keep the state economy afloat.
The point is the TDP is championing lost causes. The New Year will see Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh undertake a 400-day padayatra. When we last met, he appeared chastened and seemed aware of the pitfalls.
He believes a well-thought out agenda could be offered with issues he comes across during his walkathon. For this, he needs to strike a chord with the people. Padayatra isn’t by itself the royal road to power because imitation is never original. Inspiration and empathy are. Whether he can find them within himself decides his and his party’s fate.
Kalyan tholeti
Resident Editor, Telangana/Andhra Pradesh
chakravarthy@newindianexpress.com