The stunning victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Gujarat Assembly elections and the complete decimation of its rivals have surprised even the most optimistic supporters of that party. The party’s vote share of 52.50 per cent is unparalleled in state or national elections and is proof of the soaring popularity of prime minister Narendra Modi in his home state. Apart from Gujarat, the people of Himachal Pradesh have elected a Congress government dislodging the ruling BJP, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has wrested power in the Delhi Municipal Corporation.
While all three parties are in a celebratory mood, this is also the time for quite a reflection because the results hold out critical lessons for each of them.
First, the BJP will need to re-examine the efficacy of its slogan - Congress-Mukt Bharat seriously. Is it in the party’s interest to completely decimate the Congress? More importantly, is it in the country’s interest to see the demise of India’s Grand Old Party?
Given the terrible record of the Congress Party on many fronts, including its pseudo-secular policies, corruption and poor governance record, the BJP said its goal was to “eliminate” the Congress. Initially, this seemed an ambitious and worthy goal for the party, but the BJP seems to have forgotten that nature abhors a vacuum. If the Congress were to vacate its place as the principal opposition, some other party was sure to step in and take its place, and that party may turn out to be far more toxic than the Congress Party from a national viewpoint. And this is exactly what is happening in some states like Delhi, Punjab and Telangana, to name a few, where the ruling parties are doling out freebies to voters, unmindful of its impact on the national economy.
One may ask, why should this be a problem for anybody? The problem lies in the reckless poll promises being made by parties in election after election. For example, AAP promised women aged 18 and above in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Rs 1000 per month if voted to power, as it did in Punjab. What is the logic behind this dole, which smacks of outright bribery and what is the impact of such rash promises on the state’s coffers? Similarly, as in Punjab, the party had promised 300 units of free electricity to every household in Gujarat, free water for farmers and a fixed salary of Rs 10,000 per month for every Sarpanch. Providing free electricity to every household in Punjab is costing the state Rs 1800 crore, and the freebies promised in Punjab smack of irresponsibility given the fact that the state is severely debt-ridden and has an accumulated debt of about 2.70 lakh crores and spends 20 per cent of its annual revenue on paying interest on the loans that it has taken!
This is a trend that needs to be curbed as otherwise, democracy will be reduced to a farce as each political party will compete with another to bribe the voters with such offers.
With its vote share touching 13 per cent in Gujarat, AAP is now a “national party”, having obtained six per cent votes in four states – Delhi, Punjab, Goa and Gujarat and is openly claiming to occupy the space vacated by the Congress. The BJP needs to seriously ponder over the implications of this for national politics and the national economy. The Congress Party has many seasoned political stalwarts, and with the Nehru-Gandhis taking a step back, the party appears to be ready to address the issue of “parivarvad.” All this should give the BJP some points to ponder.
The poll results also have a lesson for the Congress. As the people know, some significant developments within this party preceded these elections in the three states. The first was that the party got a President from outside the Nehru-Gandhi family after 25 years when Mallikarjun Kharge was elected to that office in October last. The second, very important development was that the Nehru-Gandhis virtually stayed away from campaigning in the three states.
Rahul Gandhi remained focussed on his Bharat Jodo Yatra, did not campaign in Himachal Pradesh and held just two meetings on one day in Gujarat. Priyanka Gandhi campaigned for the party in Himachal Pradesh by addressing some meetings, but her family members did not lead the campaign. The Congress campaign in Himachal Pradesh was entirely driven by local leaders talking about local issues like the restoration of the old pension scheme etc. There was no talk of Savarkar or the Sangh Parivar and the British Raj or other esoteric issues Rahul Gandhi is often known to raise in his public meetings. On the other hand, state Congress president Pratibha Singh, the widow of the popular state leader Virbhadra Singh, the newly elected chief minister Sukhvinder Sukhu and others led from the front and campaigned vigorously along with other state leaders. Thus, the Congress campaign was largely state-centric, and the party’s victory was, in a sense, the people’s posthumous expression of gratitude for Singh, who held the office of chief minister of the state on several occasions for a total of 21 years.
There is a clear message in the Himachal verdict for the Congress Party and the Nehru-Gandhis. Minimal Interference in state units, respect for the vote-getting abilities of state leaders, and focus on stater-related issues during elections are certain to yield better results, especially when the family had lost the power to pull votes as it did when Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi were at the helm.
We now come to the Aam Aadmi Party. The lesson for AAP is that offering freebies recklessly can be ruinous for the national economy. Secondly, it must stop bragging about itself. In a TV interview, the Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal claimed that the BJP would not get more than 20 seats in the Delhi municipal elections and wrote it down on a piece of paper and handed it over to the anchor of the programme. The BJP’s final tally was 104 seats as against AAP’s 134! He also claimed on TV with a similar flourish that AAP would form the government in Gujarat! All this shows a complete detachment from reality and smacks of pompous behaviour and arrogance.
A SURYA PRAKASH
Former Chairman of Prasar Bharati and
scholar of democracy studies