Two in-person summit meetings of the Quad just over a year apart, one before the Ukraine war that is now into its fourth month, show that the bloc has started focusing on substantive issues, setting aside differences with India over the Ukraine war. Realpolitik has facilitated a pragmatic way forward, in light of China’s challenge. A rules-based international order has to balance the interests of all countries and cannot favour any particular nation, or a group of countries, if it has to sustain itself as an equitable architecture. So far, four summit meetings have taken place. The next in-person summit will be hosted by Australia in 2023.
The Quad joint statement after the recent Tokyo Summit has stressed the commitment of member democracies to strongly support the principles of international law, which have been transgressed by China and Russia, particularly territorial integrity and peaceful settlement of disputes. The statement, which includes a clear enunciation of opposition to changing the status quo by force, strongly reinforces freedom of navigation and overflight, and resolves to act decisively together to advance these principles in the region and beyond. “We reaffirm our resolve to uphold the international rules-based order where countries are free from all forms of military, economic and political coercion,” it states.
The emphasis of the four-country alliance has now moved on to deliver tangible benefits to the Indo-Pacific region, in the aftermath of the disruption and adverse impact caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war. Quad’s joint statement reaches out to Asean and the EU for their engagement with the Indo-Pacific. It also supports adherence to UNCLOS and the maritime rules-based order, specifically mentioning East and South China seas, where China has been capturing disputed islands, militarising them and obstructing freedom of navigation. The statement also includes references to the 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot terror attacks, making it clear that Pakistan is on the radar as a sponsor of terrorism. This will give no comfort to Pakistan.
As expected, the Quad has focused on health security and vaccine delivery, announcing greater funding for health infrastructure, resilience and vaccine production.
Although it has added $50 billion for infrastructure, it is dwarfed by China’s investment for BRI. But it is a good start, giving recipient countries a choice to avoid China’s debt-trap diplomacy. Debt management has also been emphasised to help countries via bilateral and multilateral measures. Greater cooperation has been promised in areas like regional and digital connectivity, clean energy, and climate resilience, including disaster resilience in energy-related facilities.
Climate change mitigation and adaptation will engage the bloc, with the launch of the ‘Quad Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Package (Q-CHAMP)’.
Cybersecurity is another focus — Quad has decided to take a collective approach and defend critical infrastructure from cyber threats. Related to this commitment is the focus on Critical and Emerging technologies in the area of telecommunication and semiconductors.
In a people-oriented initiative, the Quad Fellowship programme will bring 100 students to the US for higher studies. There will be enhanced cooperation in Space-related applications and technologies to meet the demands of disaster management and sustainable methods in the Blue Economy. Exchange of information gathered from satellites for this purpose will be shared. Illegal fishing by Chinese boats continue to wreak havoc in the maritime ecosphere. A new move is the establishment of the ‘Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indo-Pacific’ to enhance cooperation.
On the trade front, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) goes beyond the bloc and includes 13 countries—out of these, eight are Southeast Asian countries, out of which seven are Asean members. Except for India and the US, they are also members of RCEP. This initiative is a pivot back for the US and India—they walked out of TPP and RCEP respectively. Significantly, IPEF does not aim to be another FTA and get into tariff reduction negotiations.
It can, therefore, focus on long-term objectives like FDI, technology development, harmonisation of regulations, IPRs, service sector, vaccine delivery, climate action, and supply-chain resilience. India will welcome this roadmap. To recall PM Modi’s words, the Quad will be a “force for good”. The bloc’s objective is to project itself as a security provider that gives smaller nations an alternative. Hence, it draws in Asean and the EU into its framework of cooperation.
While FTAs/CEPAs took a back seat because of growing trade deficits with China, Japan, Korea and Asean countries, there is now a renewed attempt to negotiate FTAs with the UK and the EU. The CEPA with the UAE has been concluded and there is one with Australia awaiting finalisation. These trends indicate both geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts that are taking place in the international order. Similar agreements with GCC and Canada are on the drawing board. The IPEF fits into this pattern but details are yet to be fleshed out.
The Quad has nimbly charted a route which avoids being called out as a grouping with the only objective of constraining China. This policy has paid dividends because Asean countries, generally wary of getting on the wrong side of China, find it easier to come on board. Its reiteration of “unwavering support” for Asean is a comfort factor for members who are wary of Quad flaunting its military and security credentials, because of China’s response which metastasized from “sea foam” to the current charge that Quad is an “Asian NATO”. China’s reaction has been one of disdain, calling the Quad a “closed and exclusive clique”, “Asian NATO” and a “farce”. Piqued by the progress the bloc has so far achieved, China has to digest President Biden’s statement about defending Taiwan against any Chinese attack. China and Russia, together signalled their unhappiness by conducting joint patrols near Japan, the fourth in as many years, to show that they are cooperating to strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific. This shows China’s discomfort with Quad which it sees as an obstacle to its declared ambition of being the sole hegemon in Asia.
The Quad represents a strategic correction among big democratic powers to accommodate the changing security and economic architecture in the Indo-Pacific region. The geopolitical reality underpinning Quad should not be forgotten. China is the primary factor providing the adhesive.
The US has already designated China as the primary challenge and Australia has seen a steep decline in its ties with the country. India has also faced renewed aggression by China in Ladakh and Japan has faced encroachment in the Senkaku islands. Yet, China remains a major trading partner of all the three countries, making Quad a delicate balancing act between security and economic interests.
While the US wants the alliance to focus on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India is not on board to bring the topic of sanctions against Russia into the Quad. The Tokyo Summit has shown that Quad can spread its wings and fly. The future will tell if it will soar and become a truly productive organisation and live up to its potential. India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, in a recent op-ed article, has described the establishment of the Quad as a major diplomatic achievement of Prime Minister Modi’s government.
Former Ambassador and Secretary in MEA, and Visiting Fellow at ORF, Delhi