February 24, 2022, was truly a dark day in the history of humankind. It was on this day Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a full-scale military operation on its neighbouring state of Ukraine. It came as a terrible shock to the entire global community. We have always been worried about a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of a terrorist state. Here, a superpower possessing the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons has begun to behave like a terrorist. Perhaps, it is due to the restraint shown by the US a third world war was averted.
Russia’s action is not impulsive but can be traced back to the breakup of the erstwhile USSR. After the USSR was split into 15 nations, there were a series of conflicts in these countries. Since 2014, there have been strong differences of opinion between Russia and Ukraine for various reasons. Ukraine, taking advantage of its independence, was making moves to join the European Union and NATO. Russia did not appreciate this, and it persuaded then President Yanukovych to disapprove the signing of Ukrain’s association with the EU, which was cleared by a vast majority of its parliament.
Matters took a turn in 2014, when the anti-Russia camp won elections in Ukraine, resulting in the ousting of President Yanukovych. Subsequent Russian military intervention resulted in the Russian annexation of Crimea. Military build-up by Russia has been taking place along the Ukraine borders since then. On February 24, Putin declared war against Ukraine. More than hundred thousand troops, a 64-km-long convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles could not demoralise and destabilise the patriotic Ukrainian people. This has clearly proven that conventional warfare is no longer effective.
War fronts have stretched far beyond national boundaries, to the oceans, outer space and further into the cyber domain. Airborne and space-based systems have become powerful tools for observing enemy movement. Spacecrafts orbiting around the Earth provide updates on the military infrastructure and troop movement on the ground. Spy planes flying at very high altitudes can provide minute details of movement of convoys, supply chain, etc.
At present, unmanned drones are effectively used for spying and even weapon delivery. The drones are small and fly at very low altitudes, making very little noise. So, it is extremely difficult for the surveillance systems to detect them and shoot them down. In future wars, drones will play a major role far larger than tanks or artillery.
During this war Russia could not make any significant advancement into Ukraine’s territory despite the former’s huge forces and muscle power. Anti-tank weapons supplied to the Ukraine by the US were able to destroy quite a few tanks and armoured vehicles. Guerrilla warfare tactics and committed innovation in terms of defence using crude home-made bombs like Molotov cocktails by the Ukrainian people were able to cause large-scale damage and have slowed down the enemy movement over the last three weeks. Realising this setback, Russia started the use of their missiles to bombard even residential areas causing enormous damage to properties and innocent civilians.
It was during the Second World War that Germany developed the V2 rockets. This was the first time they demonstrated how an unmanned vehicle can deliver a bomb over several hundred kilometres. After the defeat of Germany, the rocket hardware and the scientists who made them were captured by America and Russia. Using these ballistic missiles, they developed the first intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering atomic weapons to any party of the globe.
Nowadays, low-earth orbiting satellites provide the much-needed intelligence and geo satellites provide the much-needed connectivity to the war front. They have become the latest targets during wartime. Anti-satellite weapons are in the possession of the US, China and Russia. Though all nations are bound by treaty to keep outer space only for peaceful applications, it is quite possible that some rouge country can take war to the space.
All spheres of human activity are controlled by cyber networks. Any intervention in these can create catastrophic consequences. Russia has been involved in cyber warfare against Ukraine from 2014 onwards. Ukraine has also undertaken similar attacks on Russia in recent times.
Another recent counter-threat by Russia is related to the International Space Station. As per the cooperative agreement, Russia is providing transportation of people and cargo to the space station and back. If Russia withdraws this facility the normal functioning of ISS will be disrupted. The most severe impact will be if it refuses to support the orbit maintaining propulsion system operated by Russia. Without the periodic corrections, the whole ISS weighing hundreds of tonnes will come down crashing to Earth. If the ISS falls in a heavily populated zone, it can cause massive damage.
The Russian side and the Ukraine side — supported by the US and European allies — have strength on their respective sides. Winning a war of this nature is not going to be an easy task. ‘Why’ and ‘what for’ are the real questions behind this war. Merely because one of its erstwhile ally wishes to join the other side, Russia has become agitated. The belief, that a land mass separating Russia from EU can protect it, is only a myth at the time of satellites, drones and missiles.
As I am writing this, the brute force of the so-called superpower hasn’t been able to make any dent on the patriotic Ukrainians. But the tragic part is that Russians are hitting residential areas. Unfortunately, the global peacekeeper UN has turned out to be totally ineffective in putting an end to the misery.
India has taken a pragmatic view during the Security Council discussions. It has insisted that the issues will have to be resolved amicably through bilateral discussions and perhaps this view has helped India to evacuate more than 10,000 people, especially students, from the war-torn regions. Lengthy debates in highly polished diplomatic language in the General Assembly never end up in meaningful interventions.
As long as the veto power is with the superpowers, the Security Council won’t be able to make meaningful decisions.
There is an urgent need to revisit global establishments like the UN and its agencies. Only a sensible democratic process with strict discipline can bring some solace from the existing mess. India can play a major role in this. Something like the Panchasheel — emphasising mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs and peaceful co-existence — which was evolved by India and China in the 50’s during the Cold War era will be applicable in the present context. The Cold War is over, and a steaming hot war is propping up. India should take lead in bringing about a new world order to propagate truly democratic process and a system of peaceful coexistence.