India and China are already preparing for the prospects of a Russian defeat in Ukraine and the consequences such an event can have on the future of Vladimir Putin and Russia’s political scene. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Putin “today’s era isn’t of war” when they met one-to-one on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting A piece of similar advice came from Chinese President Xi Jinping, who also told the Russian leader to end the war. Putin publicly acknowledged this fact and promised to address China’s “questions and concerns” about the Ukraine war.
This is the opposite of what Putin must have expected from the two Asian leaders. Putin came to the SCO summit in Samarkand in Uzbekistan armed with arguments and plans to persuade these leaders, as well as those from Iran and Central Asia, to forge an anti-US front.
Putin has been trying to convince the two Asian leaders that several countries as a bloc must jointly counter the mechanism of economic sanctions used by the US because the mechanism would be used against them in the future.
As it turned out, both Modi and Xi did not buy his arguments. India and China refused to join the US-sponsored mandate to condemn and isolate Russia for the Ukraine war. They too had suffered the economic brunt of the war which disrupted commodity supply lines and gravely harmed the Indian and Chinese economies.
India and China want to end the Ukraine war before Russia suffers an ignominious defeat. A defeat for Russia may have more severe implications for both countries than the harm done by the war.
To some, a possible Russian defeat may seem like a hypothetical issue at this stage. But nations must think and prepare for new situations in advance to avoid nasty surprises. In the evolving situation in Ukraine, the Russian military is being forced to pull back in different cities and areas, giving rise to a strong possibility of a withdrawal or defeat for Russia.
A defeat will hit the Russian self-image and economy badly, and further marginalisation of Russia will do no good for India. Russia continues to be the biggest source of its military hardware.
Indian forces cannot easily shift away from Russian hardware at a short notice because it involves heavy expenditure and a revamp in the workforce training process. Substituting Russian arms and spares will not be easy because European alternative options are far more expensive and not designed for the Indian situation. More so because we are unlikely to buy Chinese arms ever.
The Chinese situation is well known too. Anaysts like Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute for Strategic Studies insist there are “abundant reasons’’ for China to be very unhappy in the Ukrainian context. A defeat and weakening of Russia will hit China’s diplomatic status because some of it hinges on its cooperation with Moscow. The two countries are the closest allies among major powers. They coordinate and vote simultaneously in international forums. They hold two of the five veto powers at the United Nations Security Council.
Viewed from Beijing, Russia looks more like an embarrassment than an asset. The worst thing to happen since Russian forces invaded Ukraine on February 24 was strengthening of the western alliance and a drive among European nations to become NATO members. This is the opposite of what the state-run media has been proclaiming: the decline of western power.
Despite some misgivings, the SCO summit went about its business with the notable decision to welcome Iran as its newest member. It also set the process of granting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar the status of SCO dialogue partners. This is a crucial stage before inducting them as new members. The summit also agreed to admit Bahrain, the Maldives, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Myanmar as new dialogue partners.
At present, it has six Muslim countries as members. They include Pakistan and four Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—besides new entrant Iran. Given the lost list of Muslim countries on the verge of joining the SCO, the organisation will provide a sufficient opportunity for Muslim voices.
This is the handiwork of China which is trying to use the SCO as a counterforce to the western alliance.
The state-run Global Times in Beijing quoted Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan, director of the Islamabad-based Centre of South Asia and International Studies, as saying that the SCO’s principle of non-alliance, non-confrontation, and not targeting any third party has won the hearts of many countries. In his view, the SCO’s modern visions on politics, security, economy and human society are pretty attractive to countries in the region, and beyond.
There are signs that India decided to cold-shoulder the Chinese president. Xi Jinping would have liked a meeting with Modi because that would have contributed to his efforts to gain global importance and avoid the possibility of western isolation, which his friend and ally, Putin, is suffering from. One of China’s nightmares is further isolation of the country and its business at a time when its economy is weakening.
But India decided to signal that it is not happy about Chinese aggression on the border even during the disengagement process now taking place at Ladakh. India is not entirely happy about it and does not trust Chinese troops to stay back in their barracks for long.
The SCO summit was not a diplomatic gain for either Modi, Xi, or Putin. Instead, the member nations were keen to look out for their self-interests instead of banding together as one group under the
SCO banner.
The writer is a journalist, author, and China expert. Can be reached at asiareporter@gmail.com