Joe Biden’s decision to seek the presidency of the United States of America for a second time can only be explained, ironically, by a quote from one of America’s greatest enemies, Karl Marx, the fountainhead of Communism. “History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce,” Marx wrote in 1851 in an adaptation of a similar quote by German philosopher Georg Hegel.
The famous saying will come true next year if Biden’s presidential rematch is with his predecessor, Donald Trump, which seems likely as of now. Biden rehabilitated America to a large extent in the minds and eyes of his people during his time in office and partially restored the US standing in the world that Trump severely damaged. Yet, the fight for the White House in 2020 brought immense tragedy in its wake: the unprecedented insurrection on Capitol Hill during the certification of the election will forever remain a blot on American democracy. Hallowed institutions were damaged in the build-up to the poll, during the campaign and in its aftermath, even as many freedoms were compromised in what is known as the “Land of the Free”. Despite the tragedies, Biden’s victory over Trump was historic. But if that history is to repeat itself in the 2024 campaign, it will end up as a farce.
Four days before Biden formally announced his candidacy this week, the Associated Press polled what sample voters thought about history repeating itself from 2020. A mere 4% surveyed by AP want a rematch between the victor and the vanquished in the last presidential election. Nearly half the voters—47%—wish neither Biden nor Trump would seek re-election. Additionally, nearly a quarter of voters—23%—do not want Trump to be in the final race. Marginally more electors—26%—want Biden out of the next contest for the highest office of the land, in addition to the 47%.
If Trump is the Republican candidate next year, Democrats will see that the election is about Trump, not their current president. In that case, Biden may be re-elected despite his poor popularity now. The latest NBC News poll puts Biden’s approval ratings at figures tailor-made for his defeat. His overall approval rating is only 41%. On the most important issue for voters, the economy, the incumbent president scores only 38%. Yet, to prevent Trump from reclaiming the White House, the bulk of independents, Republican women who want restoration of their abortion rights, many moderate Republicans and undecided voters will cast their ballots for re-electing Biden. In recent memory, only once have voters decisively cast their votes to prevent the “other” candidate from winning. That was in 1964 when Americans inflicted a crushing defeat on Republican Barry Goldwater, who is now credited with fathering modern-day conservatism in the US. It was not a popular idea then. Lyndon Johnson was re-elected president in a landslide. Goldwater could win only six of the 50 US states. His tally of electoral votes was an abysmal 52 compared to Johnson’s 486. Like now, only 270 electoral votes were needed to be president then too.
In a presumptive election between Biden and Trump today, everything points to a Biden victory. This may yet change in the next 18 months, though. But it is not certain at this point. In a Wall Street Journal poll held this month among voters who dislike both candidates, a whopping majority of 54% will choose the incumbent president over his predecessor if such a choice becomes inevitable. A mere 15% of such voters will choose Trump.
The recent indictment of Trump in a New York City Court has mobilised the Republican base in his support. A huge majority of the Grand Old Party’s (GOP) voters believe the case is politically motivated and without merit. For most of them, the criminal charges against the former president make no difference. According to multiple opinion surveys, many of them are more likely to vote for Trump because they think he is being persecuted. But this is also Trump’s problem. In a presumed match against Biden, Trump cannot win over voters who would otherwise have voted against Biden. If Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the GOP candidate, many—not all—voters unhappy with Biden would opt for DeSantis. Generally speaking, if Republicans recognise this and dump Trump in favour of another leader from their party, Biden will become highly vulnerable and could well end up as a one-term president. Like Trump in January 2021.
The mid-term Congressional elections last year, in which Republicans fared poorly, has lessons for the GOP. But in an emotionally charged atmosphere, which Trump is further trying to inflame, those lessons may be lost on the party’s most faithful. That is what Biden is hoping for.
What does all this mean for India-US relations? Modi is to go to Washington on a state visit in the second half of June, only the third from India. Biden will be in New Delhi in the beginning of September for the Group of Twenty summit.
These are important engagements, and their substance will be conditioned by assessments in South Block—seats of the Ministry of External Affairs and the Prime Minister’s Office—about the US election outcome. India has heavily invested in Biden. It is not a superficial and telegenic engagement like with Trump, which was meant to please the mercurial and unpredictable president, but with little substance in retrospect.
Modi and Biden have had more than 20 interactions—face-to-face, virtual and phone conversations—in the last 28 months since Biden moved into the White House. Apart from meetings, the scale, speed and spread of the bilateral outreaches going beyond the two governments and covering industry, think tanks and academia point to a need to build on them.
A return by Trump to the White House will mean much of these efforts would have been wasted, given his style and temperament. Milestone industry deals such as the Tata-Boeing agreement will, of course, stay. But reorienting the structure of relations with Trump’s imprint will mean much will be lost and will take time to rebuild.
K P Nayar
Strategic Analyst