There have been many commentaries on India recently becoming the most populous nation by overtaking China. Based on median projections by the United Nations/agencies, estimates show that the world population has crossed 8 billion and is expected to be 9.7 billion by 2050 and could stabilise around 10. 4 billion by the mid-2080s. India’s current numbers are just below 1.43 billion people, which, by related estimates, is expected to peak at around 1.7 billion by the mid-2060s.
While many commentaries celebrate India’s unique achievement, a few of them caution on the need for reaping the demographic dividend through quality education, continuous skilling and so on. They rightly argue that an economy growing at an average real rate of around 6 per cent, even amidst significant headwinds of inflation, declining global growth and geo-political tensions, can grow faster and absorb the growing numbers and take full advantage of the demographic sweet spot.
However, this demographic advantage of having a young population is only a partial picture. The whole story has several components and solid explanatory variables that would decide the final net outcome of this reality of life involving large numbers of human beings and other lives on earth.
First, the population issue must be seen as a global issue, not just a national one. We have only one planet as of now. While the ghost of Malthus may be at rest, the ability of planet Earth to sustain the still-growing numbers has to be factored in any meaningful analysis of human numbers. While the UN captions its population report “8 Billion Lives, Infinite Possibilities: the case for Rights and Choices” and argues that ‘alarmist positions of doom and bust’ are uncalled for, other UN agencies such as the United Nations Framework Convention and Climate Change [UNFCCC] are worried about climate change and the growing vulnerability of life on earth. Climate disaster-induced migration [climate refugees] is expected to grow exponentially. Habitable space is stated to shrink with islands and coastal regions getting submerged and desertification; growing conflict between wildlife and humans; usable water and the air becoming scarce; all as per expert studies. If such projected scenarios on climate change by expert agencies are realistic, we have severe disconnects in how we approach global population growth for another 60 years. The narrative of the growing billions and the ‘infinite possibilities’ that would open up has to be balanced with the narratives on climate change issues of planetary proportions.
Population growth is mainly in relatively poorer nations/regions of Asia and Africa, where conditions of life are miserable. Many of them are vulnerable not only to climate-induced migration but also governance deficit-led migration.
On the other hand, most advanced countries are facing a steady decline in their populations and sustaining their elderly with a shrinking workforce is their challenge. It is not just an economic issue of having money; it needs to realign the socio-economic-demographic fabric of a nation in several ways, as Japan faces today.
Education and skilling alone cannot meaningfully address the issues of an ageing nation and a shrinking workforce. The medical-healthcare and other infrastructure requirements are enormous and will face enormous weight as the numbers and demand grow. This would call for radical thinking on the right to a dignified death as part of the right to a dignified life. Switzerland, which tops in ease of living, is also the most ‘liberal’ country for ease of dying too. It allows people to voluntarily seek medically assisted suicide subject to minimum conditions. Even existential suffering is a legitimate reason for seeking this assistance.
The cost of geriatric care is well-known. At an individual level, prolonged medical treatment makes caregivers bankrupt. Such cost to the nation, with an increasing population of elderly, is already a major challenge in developed economies. Developing economies do not even venture to formally calculate such costs. However, medical science has made rapid advances in prolonging the life of people by more than doubling the longevity of life across the world, irrespective of rich or poor, in less than a century. The medical-pharma industry has also become a strong vested interest in prolonging life [‘medical mummification’]. The elderly, needing maximum medication and hospitalisation, are the prime milch cows for the pharma-medical industry.
India is on an ambitious growth trajectory, expecting to reach a developed nation status by 2047. Many possibilities open up when you are on a ‘growth turnpike’. Moreover, Article 21 of the Indian Constitution protects life as a fundamental right. The Supreme Court holds that the right to life means the right to a dignified life, which includes the right to a dignified death. The question, therefore, is whether we can provide dignified life and death to our teeming millions, now at 1.43 billion and growing with all the pressures on land, forest, water and air already being felt. Our 10 % of the population above 60 years in 2019 is estimated to be 19.6% by 2050, not much below the projected ratio of even the USA [which is estimated to be 22%]. The ‘25-year-long runway’ of the ‘young’ will meet 30 crore old people. Dignified life to all will be a fiscal and logistics challenge. Therefore, a celebration of our growing population needs much more than seeking dividends. It needs bold ambitions, policies and preparations for a quality life; quality education, skills, jobs, health care; everything else for opening up possibilities and choices; capabilities and attitudinal changes for a planet-friendly life.
(Views are personal. No AI tool has been used in writing this article.)
CKG Nair
Director, National Institute of Securities Markets