What happens when a political party wins an election again and again? It boosts confidence. It creates an aura of invincibility. It creates a shield of power. It reflects the people’s verdict that the policies at play have worked. Again and again. It creates arrogance as well.
Every political party that has repeated its success at both the national and state levels in India election after election has enjoyed the fruits that such success reaps as well as the small traces of the poison of arrogance that it leaves behind.
In the results announced on Sunday for elections to the state assemblies of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana, there are examples of every kind to examine. While Shivraj Singh Chouhan has led the BJP to success in Madhya Pradesh for the fifth time, the governments of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have collapsed in front of the might of the BJP juggernaut at the central and state levels. Add to it the umbrella cover of Hindutva and the anti-Congress sentiment planted, nurtured and built as an embedded narrative over the years in the Hindi heartland of the country. In Madhya Pradesh, a potent cocktail of this seems to have worked once again. Fifth time in a row. Where then is ‘anti-incumbency’? Is ‘pro-incumbency’ the new term to embrace, appreciate and nurture from day one of your next rule in the state?
The fact remains that there are two attitudes at play among political parties at the state level. One defines every day of governance as a countdown from the date of assuming office to the date of demitting it. In most cases, this is a 60-month countdown. The other imagines every day of governance as an opportunity to govern well. An opportunity to actually do good in the run-up to month 60 when a repeat mandate is a reward waiting to be plucked.
Would I then be right to say that the lack of success of the Congress in three states north of the Vindhyas is a telling sign of attitude one at play—where the opportunity to rule is seen as a countdown? And is this attitude party-related? Or CM-related? Is there an old attitude that used to believe in this? And a new and aggressive one that destroys and questions its very existence altogether? An attitude owned and patented by the BJP in India for itself perhaps.
What then happens when you lose a state you ruled for five years? In Indian electioneering history, the convenient term used to describe this was ‘anti-incumbency’. Every losing party consoled itself with this trend that many states seemed to exhibit. While every losing party took refuge under this term, few addressed the real reasons. The real reasons that displayed arrogance of power and lack of performance to the vested mandate.
While every party works hard till the elections, not many continue to work hard to fulfil the promises and the mandate of good governance over the five-year term vested in them by the electorate. The electorate is not finicky when it comes to voting in alternative parties election after election. It is the political party and its leadership that is finicky in delivering the mandate. The dictum is clear. Do good to the people and the people will be good to you. An election is a give-and-take moment. In more ways than one today, of course. The electorate expects good governance, integrity, no corruption and of course, freebies of every kind that may come their way. All of it makes for the potent cocktail of a win. If you peep into the results of Madhya Pradesh, you will see the BJP doing all of this right, including the Laadli Behna scheme of ‘Mamaji’ Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
Why do political parties then forget that an election is coming in the next 60 months? Why do elected governments not treat every win as an opportunity to repeat a win? The reasons are many of course. There are people who believe that a win is an opportunity to make money. And then there are others who believe a win is an opportunity to bring good to the people and be remembered for good. And then there are people who believe that whatever you do, you cannot escape anti-incumbency. You might as well do a mix of both. Do good. And do bad. Note: Bad in my verbiage is the big C that affects our lives as citizens: Corruption.
Is pro-incumbency a good thing for governance then? Is single-party rule over a long period of time a good thing for the country and the state in question? Let’s think national. The Narendra Modi government at the Centre completes 10 years soon. All indications right now point to a repeat run for the BJP-led Narendra Modi government. The PM is the ultimate ambassador of Brand India. And India is performing. While gross domestic product metrics indicate positivity, India seems to have successfully warded off the boogeyman of recession standing at the doorstep of several countries across the globe. India today is a global image of solidity and performance. Must we then give credit for this performance to the PM? And does that mean he will return as the leader of this great nation in the next election? If he does, he has the potential to become India’s longest serving PM after Jawaharlal Nehru’s stint of 16 years and 286 days.
Does this mean that nothing else is as important as the pro- or anti-incumbency movement? Does it mean that there is no credit for positive campaigns, strong grassroots connect, booth-level organisation, ideologies and every other tool in the toolkit of political parties?
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Yes, I don’t think anything else matters. Nothing as much as the power of positive governance that can be seen, touched, tasted and felt. No amount of advertising, marketing, branding, PR or any of the many tools are as powerful as positive governance. And nothing is as bad as bad governance. And that’s a good sign. A good sign for the future of India, if our leaders read the message in the bottle.
Till then, the happy thought is that ‘pro-incumbency’ is a defining positive phrase. I hope this term actually does motivate every leader aspiring for a governance re-run. If nothing else, pro-incumbency will give us—the citizens of this country—a motivated set of leaders who serve the people with good intent. And that’s what we need, right? All else will fall into place. By default.
Strapline: No party can stay in power unless it contests anti-incumbency sentiments. If someone plots only from election to election, governance suffers in the middle