The post-mortems continue to be written after last weekend’s election results, mostly dismissing the Congress party’s prospects in the forthcoming general elections and announcing that it is finished in the Hindi belt.
Its historically poorest performance in 2014, followed by a comparable failure in 2019 and now the recent losses in four states—in all of which it expected, and was expected to, fare much better—has convinced commentators that the Grand Old Party is facing its biggest crisis ever. ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ was one of Modi’s election slogans during the 2014 Lok Sabha campaign. Is he about to realise that goal in 2024? I am tempted to say: not so fast, friends.
This is not said out of complacency, the very attribute many are ascribing to us to account for our defeat even in states where we were said to be well ahead. Later this month, on December 28, the party celebrates its 139th foundation day. I am well aware that many formerly formidable national parties like the Whigs in the United States or the Liberals in the UK have faded into irrelevance or even extinction after once being seen as “natural parties of government”.
Our own relatively shorter democratic history has witnessed the disappearance of once-formidable national parties—Rajaji’s Swatantra Party, once India’s largest opposition party, which had as many seats in the Lok Sabha after the 1967 elections as the Congress had in 2014; the Communist Party of India, which has now dwindled to a marginal appendage of its breakaway faction, the CPI(M); and the Janata Party, which ruled India from 1977 to 1979.
The Congress won’t disappear like Janata or merge into another party like Swatantra, but it is already reduced to being the third or fourth party in several states where it had earlier been either the ruling party or the principal opposition. This is why some write the Congress off as a once-formidable force that lingers on as little more than a shadow of its own storied history.
But even without denying any of this, it is important to underscore one vital truth: India cannot do without the Congress. What it stands for, and the space it occupies, are essential for the nation to survive and thrive.
This is not merely because the Congress is the party that led the freedom struggle and won us our independence. Nor even because, with the 120 million votes it won while losing the election of 2019, it still has a much larger support base than its paltry numbers in parliament suggest. It is also because the Congress is alone in seeing India as a whole; its core convictions reflect the vision that India belongs to all who had contributed to its history and civilisation, and that the majority community has a special obligation to protect the rights, and promote the well-being, of India’s minorities.
The Congress is not just another political party; it is an ideology shaped in the crucible of our national movement. In both governmental policy and personal practice, the Congress stands for an idea of India that embraces those of every religion, caste, ethnicity or language.
This is why the party has managed to bounce back from earlier crises—its splits in 1969 and 1977, Indira Gandhi’s assassination in 1984, Rajiv’s assassination in 1991, the disastrous Kesri interlude of ineptitude and infighting (1996-98) and its longest period without being in power at the Centre (1996-2004). Will an even longer period be inaugurated by the next elections? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Let’s not forget that the Congress is the only pan-Indian party that provides an alternative to the BJP. It may be in power only in three states, and in coalition in two more, but collectively these span the length of the country from Himachal to Telangana, and it remains a viable alternative from Rajasthan to Assam and from Kashmir to Kerala. It is difficult for the smaller regional parties like the Aam Admi Party or the Trinamool Congress to compete outside their immediate catchment areas, but the INDIA alliance can leverage the Congress’s nationwide presence. Even in defeat, the vote difference is not unbridgeable. With its national footprint, a modest 5 percent swing in favour of the Congress could deliver it an additional 60-70 seats, which, together with victories of the INDIA parties in their own states, would threaten the survival of the Modi government.
Yet the Congress’s messaging has proved a challenge. Attacking Hindutva is portrayed as “appeasing” minorities, but echoing it is seen as Hindutva-lite, and who wants that when they can vote for the original? Attacking the Modi government is depicted as “negativism”, but silence is denounced as “weakness”. Criticising the BJP’s majoritarian and authoritarian version of nationalism is savaged as “anti-national”, but not doing so cedes the nationalist space to the BJP. It seems sometimes that whatever Congress does, it will be blamed.
The BJP’s real advantage over the Congress is election management: its money, its campaigning and PR, the strength of its sangathan (augmented by the RSS) in converting support into votes on election day. We have to face them with the determination that comes from the realisation that the 2024 election is a struggle for India’s soul.
For ten years of BJP rule have done enormous damage to the country—to our economy, which is reeling under inflation and the highest unemployment ever recorded; to our social fabric, with the “othering” of minorities, especially Muslims; to our institutions, with the hollowing out of the autonomy and freedom they previously enjoyed; to the environment, with unbreathable air in our cities, undrinkable water in our rivers, and free passes to despoilers; and to our relations with our neighbours and our standing in the world, as incidents from Qatar to the US, and Vancouver to Galwan, confirm. In 2004, the Vajpayee government faced only one of these failures—unemployment—and yet lost the election.
So there is hope. The Congress is down but not out. We will never allow Mr Modi to fulfil his dream of a ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’—for India’s sake.
Shashi Tharoor is a third-term MP from Thiruvananthapuram and a Sahitya Akademi winning author of 24 books, most recently Ambedkar: A Life. (He can be reached at office@tharoor.in)