A legislative Assembly election that covers just about 5.22 crore Indians in Karnataka has just been completed. A big election, then. The campaign has closed, and the votes have been counted. The mandate of the people of Karnataka has been announced decisively and recorded. The people of the state have decided on a change of government. The BJP government has been voted out, and a decisive majority has been given to a Congress-led government.
There is euphoria in the Congress camp, a certain degree of glum introspection in the BJP’s ranks, and a big degree of disappointment in the ranks of the JD(S), which this time is neither king nor kingmaker. Time to then analyse the victory and the defeat in equal measure. Time to sit back neutrally and check on what went right and what did not for the three major parties in the fray.
When I look at Karnataka, a state that has been at the forefront of economic prosperity for the last decade, there is a sense of relief among all concerned that there is a government with a clear mandate to rule in place. The state has seen successive sets of years with a fractured mandate that has had governance suffer. The state has wanted one of the three parties to have a clear mandate to run its affairs rather than live in the shadow of a mixed governance structure.
What do I see to be the clear trends and issues this election result throws up? Here are the top five ones from my perch of perspective.
Firstly, Karnataka votes differently in every election. This is a clear trend the state is famous for. The electorate is considered to be a very savvy one. One that distinguishes issues that are local and issues that are national. It votes differently in the Lok Sabha elections as opposed to the Vidhana Sabha elections. The very same voter would vote for the BJP when it comes to managing the nation and in favour of the Congress when it comes to the state. I would go one step further and wager a bet that the same person might consider a whole new party for the BBMP (Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike) city corporation elections ahead. AAP, are you listening?
Secondly, Karnataka changes its government every five years. The state believes in change. It started in the 1990s, and the state has continuously changed its governments from one party colour to another. Karnataka has done it again this time round. The winning party needs to keep this in mind as it has a clear-cut 60 months to deliver on its many promises.
Thirdly, Karnataka reinvents the model of a local election with local issues. The strategy team in the Congress party has got it right this time. Just as the narrative of the BJP has been centred on the good governance and leadership given to the country by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Congress has been saying that this is a state election and you need credible state leaders to manage the show. Both D K Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah have been very vocal on this. It looks as if the message has sunk deep into the electorate, which finally heard them.
Fourthly, politics gets divided into rich politics versus poor politics. This was an election that divided the audiences economically. The post-Covid reality of stressed homes—families struggling with low incomes and high prices of essential commodities—hit hard. The LPG cylinder hogged the limelight once again. This time as an icon of imagery of the steep increase in prices poor homes faced. The woman of the house was up in arms and used her vote to say what she wanted to say.
And finally, Karnataka goes bipolar. If one looks at how the Old Mysuru (hitherto the bastion of the JD(S)) area voted, it appears as if the Congress gained at the cost of the JD(S). The Congress narrative of being a party that could form a government was sold well to the region’s electorate. The JD(S) did not have the same clout of narrative. The JD(S), of late, has been seen as a kingmaker party. A party that chips in when push comes to shove but one that cannot form a government on its own. This seems to have hurt the vote.
As the election hurly burly settles, the BJP will go into a huddle and introspect. The party, which has a very strong “always on” cadre, unlike cadres of other parties which are rather “election time-mobilised” or “individual constituency leader-focused”—is not giving up. One election loss in the state that paved the way for its first-ever South Indian entry will not dampen its enthusiasm.
Work will begin immediately to get its cadre into election mode again for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP knows that the state votes differently in every election and will look forward to repeating its record contribution of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the last election. The BJP is a party with a deep and abiding plan. It is a party that thinks not about the next election alone but with a canvas of the next 25 years in mind. It will be back to the drawing board to plan its next step and action. It will be business as usual. This time around, as the primary opposition party in the state.
The JD(S) looks decimated for now. It does still have a concentration of seats in its kitty. The party has already articulated its role as a local party of significance amidst a set of national parties that aspire to rule the state. The Tamil Nadu model where Dravidian parties keep national parties out is something the JDS will look at keenly for sure. Local issues are best dealt with by the local parties. The JD(S) then has a plan of action ahead for sure. And to do this, it does need a lot of money (which it did not have in this election), and a lot of focus and passion to pursue this purpose.
For now, however, with this big and decisive win, it is party time for the Congress, introspection time for the BJP and deep-introspection time for the JD(S). Congratulations to the leadership team of Mallikarjun Kharge, Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra. And a bigger congratulations to the untiring efforts of DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah. Whatever happens from now on, it can’t be said that the two did not do what they were meant to do. And they did it well.
Harish Bijoor
Brand Guru and Founder, Harish Bijoor Consults Inc