In a break from its recent electoral performance, the Congress party won the Karnataka Assembly elections on May 13. The people of Karnataka were massively miffed at the anti-people governance and all-around corruption of the BJP government, and this was reflected in the predictions of most exit polls. Even the diehard supporters of the Congress—very few in the current political scenario—were unsure of how the results would play out despite being aware of the anti-incumbency prevalent in the state. This is because of the horrific electoral run of the Congress since 2013, where it has bagged only a few states and lost too many.
As soon as the results mirrored what was said in the exit polls, the office of the Congress party in Delhi—which generally offers a deserted look—was abuzz with celebration. The leaders promptly followed the popular ritual of thanking their dear leader Rahul Gandhi. Party spokespersons took no time to remind TV anchors that the success of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra bore fruit in the state. But is that the case?
Sure, analyses by political pundits may highlight that the Congress won 36 out of 51 constituencies in the state through which Rahul Gandhi’s yatra passed. But a closer look highlights that there is more to it than meets the eye. Essentially, sitting even in Delhi, one could feel the people’s anger against the Bommai-led government. It is the failure of the Congress party that despite such strong anti-incumbency, the BJP managed to maintain its 36% vote share in the state. The Congress made an additional gain of only 4.8% vote share even though the BJP was constantly battling factional feuds and reeling under anti-incumbency. Further analysis reveals that the Congress won at least 37 Assembly seats by a narrow margin, some as close as 200–250 votes. For example, former state Congress chief Dinesh Gundu Rao secured a victory by just 105 votes from the Gandhi Nagar seat.
Notably, in Bengaluru, Karnataka’s most urbanised political region, the Congress improved its vote share by less than 1%. In contrast, the BJP improved its share by 6%. The BJP’s vote share in the Mysuru region also increased by around 3%. Contrary to popular belief, the BJP did much better than the Congress, at least among urban voters.
Overall, what also went in the favour of the Congress party was the dismal performance of the JD(S). The Kumaraswamy-led party suffered a 5% decline in its vote share, resulting in a whopping loss of 18 seats. It is said that many of the JD(S) voters favoured the Congress this time to keep the corrupt BJP out of power.
The Congress is mistaken if it thinks this will be repeated in future elections. Also, the BJP government’s decision to scrap the 4% quota for Muslims and issues like the hijab ban consolidated the Muslim voters in Congress’ favour.
Political pundits say that a sizeable number of Lingayats, about 17% of the state’s population, voted for the Congress for the first time in three decades. The BJP played with the sentiments of the Lingayats by unceremoniously removing Yediyurappa as CM in 2021 and paying the price for it. The historical pattern of changing the government every five years in the state also worked for the Congress.
Further, the Congress’ success can be attributed to its strong state leadership of D K Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah, two prominent political figures with mass appeal. To say that RaGa and his yatra had a major impact on the Karnataka polls is like taking away credit from the party’s local leadership.
Say, what was the impact of Rahul’s yatra on the Jalandhar Lok Sabha bypoll, where unfortunately, the local MP succumbed to a heart attack during the yatra and his wife could not manage to retain the seat, a stronghold of the Congress for 61 years. Rahul’s yatra didn’t make any difference in the UP local body elections either, where the AAP grabbed more seats than the Congress.
Talking about the AAP, the party significantly impacted the Karnataka election sans any electoral success. First, the much-talked-about five guarantees of the Karnataka Congress was a strategy straight out of Arvind Kejriwal’s book. It’s rather rich how the Congress and the BJP join hands to vehemently criticise the AAP for offering social welfare schemes like free electricity or free bus rides to women, only to follow the same strategy elsewhere. However, both these parties could not deliver on the promises they made in so many years of their rule.
In Karnataka, the Congress emulated some smart political moves of Kejriwal. Its entire leadership, including Rahul Gandhi, strategically focused on local issues and the Bommai government. This approach was identical to Kejriwal’s strategy during the Delhi and Punjab elections, where he successfully negated the Modi factor to null, not once but thrice.
It’s absolutely fine for Rahul Gandhi to follow in Kejriwal’s footsteps, but he lacks the honest intent, the never-say-die spirit and the political acumen of the AAP leader. It was Kejriwal—first among all Opposition leaders—who highlighted the prime minister’s degree issue and his crony capitalism as early as 2014. Rahul may have started attacking the PM, but he has nothing new to offer and no governance model to show even after many decades of Congress rule.
For the naysayers, AAP did contest and lose in Karnataka, but the party took this election as an organisation-building exercise. The people of Karnataka have chosen a lesser evil without a viable alternative. The ‘40% sarkara’ has been voted out, and a ‘20% sarkara’ will replace it.
It’s an obvious fact that the ‘copycat’ Congress imitated the AAP’s poll promises and gained an electoral advantage in Karnataka, but it needs to demonstrate honest intent and intellectual and financial acumen to deliver on those promises. And yes, ‘AAP ne rajneeti badal di’. Because of the AAP, these parties are now forced to think of ‘Aam Aadmis’.
Priyanka Kakkar
Chief National Spokesperson, Aam Aadmi Party
(Views are personal)