Last week’s ASEAN summit at Labuan Bajo revealed more differences than commonalities among the 10-member organisation, even as the internal unity is being challenged by a variety of domestic and regional compulsions. While the central focus of the summit remained the growing geopolitical rivalry and the domestic political stalemate in Myanmar, the emphasis on the unity of the grouping cannot be taken for granted, even as individual member countries are seeing the geopolitical scenario more as an opportunity to gain economic advantages at the cost of maintaining the region’s balance on normative matters. Malaysia has come into stark focus in the region over how the new incumbent government of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is today moving closer to China through several economic agreements while avoiding any outright conflict over the sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, leading to an ambiguous strategic balance in the region.
During the last few weeks, the debate in Malaysian politics heated up between Anwar Ibrahim’s government and the Opposition over the question of Malaysia’s strategic balance vis-à-vis China. Following his first visit to China last month, the Malaysian PM returned home with both significant economic deals amounting to the tune of $39 billion and to sharp criticism from the Opposition that his visit laid bare the vulnerabilities of Malaysia’s security concerns, particularly in the contested claims over the South China Sea.
The visit resulted in finalising 19 Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) between Malaysia and China focusing on investments to address key areas of infrastructural development and enhancement of digital services, which are key priority issues for Malaysia. Slated as the biggest investment deal that Malaysia has achieved so far from China, Prime Minister Anwar elaborated on the need to view Chinese partnership as the way forward while praising the global influence of Chinese Premier Xi Jinping.
A close look at how Malaysia has systematically become a clear economic partner for China is indicative from the period when Prime Minister Najib was in office: he opened up avenues for the expansion of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Malaysia through the negotiation on the East Coast Rail Link that would connect the region of Tumpat in Malaysia’s Kelantan province with Port Klang on the country’s western shores, which lies at the northern tip of the Strait of Malacca. By this route, the southern tip of Thailand in the South China Sea would be connected to the Malacca Strait, pushing the infrastructural requirements of the BRI across the mainland while connecting the geopolitically sensitive region of the South China Sea to the Malacca Strait through an overland route.
However, in 2018, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed won a historic second term on the mandate of fighting corruption, and in his first overseas visit to China, he spoke of the need to reassess the Chinese investments in the BRI and the East Coast Rail Link, which was almost equivalent to forms of neocolonialism. This deal was later renegotiated with better terms for Malaysia so as to address some of the constraints of national debt within the country, especially as such huge investment projects were likely to impact the Malaysian economy vis-à-vis its increasing dependency on China. The renegotiated deal, while more favourable to Malaysia, continued to strengthen the economic ties between the two countries.
However, the Mahathir government also challenged China’s assertions over the 9-dash line by submitting a revised claim to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, which clearly asserted Malaysia’s sovereign rights to the contested region as per the UNCLOS.
One of the foremost concerns highlighted by Anwar’s visit to China indicates that Malaysia’s foreign policy tilt occurs when the country’s neutrality needs to remain high. For Malaysia, the issues of political stability within the country remain significant as coalition partners remain divided on domestic and foreign policy issues.
The Opposition has been critical of the statement made by Anwar regarding negotiations with China. Much of the criticism has been on the suggestion that the energy resources in the Petronas areas in the South China Sea could be “jointly explored” and such a possibility can be “negotiated”, which is a red flag insofar as Malaysia’s sovereign rights in the South China Sea are concerned. To address the matter of Malaysia’s sovereign claims in the South China Sea, there needs to be unequivocal consensus between the ruling party and the Opposition.
At the ASEAN summit earlier this month, two core issues were in focus—first, Prime Minister Anwar stated that cohesion was imperative to handle the shifting geopolitics in the region and also added that the principle of non-intervention in internal affairs needs to be re-evaluated, especially in light of the ongoing political crisis in Myanmar. Second, Indonesian President Jokowi and Philippine President Marcos emphasised the ongoing geopolitical tensions emanating from major power conflicts. While the South China Sea dispute remains inconclusive, given that China does not seem ready to accept international law as the basis of a resolution, the regional states need to maintain their neutrality with no uncertain terms.
The move that ASEAN has often repeated vis-à-vis the progress towards a Code of Conduct is still uncertain, leaving little room for any negotiation with China—both at the level of individual claimant countries or at the regional stage. At this point, not just Malaysia but all ASEAN members need to reassert a high degree of neutrality without compromise.
Shankari Sundararaman
Professor at School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi
(shankari@mail.jnu.ac.in)