The upcoming state elections reveal a new interplay between the BJP high command and the party’s regional satraps. In a clear snub to the latter, the party has declared the lotus as the only electoral face. Former chief ministers have been sidelined. This signifies a transitory phase for the BJP when the party is popular nationally but is antagonistic to its regional satraps except in Assam and Uttar Pradesh. To fill the vacuum of regional leaders, the party has fielded its top guns—from members of parliament to cabinet ministers.
A leader’s popularity is an asset to any party. The current hegemony of the BJP in most parts of India is linked to Narendra Modi’s popularity. However, a closer look at the state level reveals a diametrically opposite picture. The BJP has a vibrant party structure, a dedicated team of organisational personnel aided by a much bigger team of dedicated professionals. But it seems to suffer from having an outlook that is too organisational, and where some popular leaders are seen as misfits who upset organisational coherence.
In Telangana, a state where other backward classes, scheduled castes and scheduled tribes account for around 90 per cent of the electorate, the BJP removed its party president Bandi Sanjay Kumar, a popular backward-caste leader, to appease newly-inducted leaders from the Bharat Rashtra Samithi and Congress. Now the party is poised to remain in the third spot. Similarly, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje have been snubbed in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, the party is soft on the incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan despite his waning popularity. In the past, the BJP suffered when it neglected popular state leaders in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
Our field study in Rajasthan revealed a shift from the usual forces at play in assembly elections. For the first time, the pattern of strong anti-incumbency feelings against the ruling party is missing. The Congress has mastered its policy outreach strategy, employed elsewhere most efficiently by the BJP. In all the seven sub-regions of Rajasthan—Mewat, Jaipur, Shekhavati, Marwar, Mewar, Hadoti and Ajmer-Merwara—Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s banners can be seen in most public spaces, giving the Congress a much-needed perception edge. The prospect for BJP’s counter-campaign of ‘Nahi sahega Rajasthan (Rajasthan won’t tolerate)’ appears dim. Gehlot’s image blitz resonates on the ground because of his populist Mehengayi Rahat (inflation relief) schemes. Vasundhara Raje—the only state leader who could have added some swing to the saffron party as she still has significance among Jats, OBCs, a section of tribals, and most importantly women—is left in the lurch.
The indispensability of a regional satrap as an electoral face assumes centrality when women voters are emerging as a big factor. They seek a relatable face that signifies better law and order, development and women-centric schemes. The current Congress governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh have special schemes aimed at women. Vasundhara Raje could have helped bridge this gap to a great extent in Rajasthan. However, the core upper-caste base of the BJP is either critical of or aloof to her leadership and the party has sidelined her.
The state’s anti-Vasundhara leaders do not have any tangible ground presence. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, central minister for water resources and MP from Jodhpur, is neither a match for Gehlot nor a swing factor even among his own caste’s vote bloc. The clout of Om Birla, the Lok Sabha speaker and MP from Kota, doesn’t seem to transcend his South Kota constituency. There is hardly any impact of law minister Arjun Ram Meghwal over the populous Meghwal scheduled caste community, who have traditionally voted for the Congress and are still rallying behind the grand old party. It seems these leaders owe their victories in 2019 to the Modi wave. The same is true for Rajendra Singh Rathore, the leader of the opposition in Rajasthan.
In Chhattisgarh, the factions represented by Arun Sao, the BJP state president, Brijmohan Agrawal, Ajay Chandrakar, Prem Prakash Pandey, Narayan Chandel and Saroj Pandey have been more invested in neutralising former chief minister Raman Singh than the incumbent Congress government. This leaves Bhupesh Baghel, the current Congress chief minister, with a relatively easy turf despite a substantial anti-incumbency factor in all three regions of the state. Had the BJP’s leadership issue been resolved, Chhattisgarh would have been the easiest for it to win.
Another shift that warrants attention is the informed decisions swing voters are taking. Most voters we spoke to who expressed support for the Congress at the assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and to a large extent in Chhattisgarh, also opined that they will vote for Modi when he himself is the stakeholder in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. But they are not willing to exonerate the state leadership on account of the prime minister.
This brings up the BJP’s structural need to project popular regional anchors, particularly in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The two planks of better organisation and the Modi factor didn’t work in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. Over-reliance on these planks without having regional anchors may not help the party cross the threshold this time too. This needs a sense of organisational humility towards popular regional satraps.
In the era of competitive politics, political parties need constant creative strategies that would tolerate a little chaos within the organisation and allow misfits who can pull in undecided swing voters. Given the political fluidity of Indian society, organisation helps, but too much organisation may not.
Sajjan Kumar
Political analyst associated with PRACCIS, a Delhi-based research organisation
(sajjanjnu@gmail.com)