Karnataka polls and the return of the local narrative in electoral dynamics

Barring the last leg of the campaign led by Prime Minister Modi, the Congress managed to set the agenda around local issues which BJP had to keep responding to...
People wait in queues at a polling station to cast their votes for Karnataka Assembly elections, in Bengaluru. (Photo | Nagaraja Gadekal, EPS)
People wait in queues at a polling station to cast their votes for Karnataka Assembly elections, in Bengaluru. (Photo | Nagaraja Gadekal, EPS)

One phrase that overwhelmed the analytical matrix of the 2023 Karnataka Assembly election happens to be 'the politics south of the Vindhyas' -- a metaphor signifying a mood for change. However, while the analytical claims for the change seem plausible, the underlying reason for the same does not. Hence, it is pertinent to contextualise the political dynamics of Karnataka in its proper perspective to draw the right inference, the electoral outcome notwithstanding.

First, let's consider the prevailing institutional, organisational and leadership factors in the state. The Congress had a head start because of the anti-incumbency against the BJP government. Two, the Congress has a powerful regional anchor, Siddaramaiah, who has been employing his persona to translate the anti-incumbency sentiment into a vote against the BJP. Three, the state BJP is divided into three incommensurable factions, each working at cross-purposes until recently. Lastly, the incumbent chief minister, Basavaraj Bommai, doesn't have the charisma of his predecessor B S Yediyurappa. Hence, the saffron party has pinned its hopes on the Modi factor, which is visible in the blitzkrieg campaign by the prime minister.

Nevertheless, Karnataka is an outlier and almost a misfit vis-à-vis the loaded meaning of the phrase, 'the politics south of the Vindhyas'. Unlike the other southern states, Karnataka neither had intense language-based politics nor a history of film stars calling the shots in the political arena, as has been the case in Tamil Nadu and undivided Andhra Pradesh.

In fact, the state has provided top leaders to both the Congress and the BJP.

Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge hails from Karnataka, and the role of state Congress president D K Shivakumar as a managerial person has been significant in the Congress' national affairs since Ahmed Patel's days.

Similarly, in the BJP, one of the most active and assertive national general secretaries (organisation) hitherto, BL Santhosh, and the national president of the BJP Yuva Morcha and MP from the Bengaluru South Lok Sabha constituency, Tejasvi Surya, who is constantly in the national news, hail from Karnataka. Augmenting the state's centrality in the pan-Indian organisational strength of the Hindutva discourse is the presence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) general secretary, Dattatreya Hosabale, who also hails from Karnataka.

Collectively, this matrix of leadership in the pan-Indian role in both national parties and the state's history easily circumvents the cliched regional political fault line employed as 'south of the Vindhyas'. In fact, it can reasonably be inferred that barring few specificities, Karnataka defies the logic of incommensurable regional distinctiveness, which in turn, places the state more in sync across the Vindhyas rather than the other way around.

Commonsensically, this positive interplay of Karnataka and the national political dynamics should have worked in favour of the BJP. Yet, the ground narrative suggests an edge to the Congress. Understanding this discrepancy requires a slight conceptual shift in the nature of the electoral narratives and their resonance with the people. While the BJP attempted to synchronise the local and national narratives, as was the case with allocating a 4% reservation earmarked for the Muslims to the Vokkaligas and Lingayats, and its promise of implementing the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) along with the discourse of Hindutva, the Congress effectively customised its strategy to give leverage to the local issues around governance deficit and corruption.

Barring the last leg of the campaign led by Prime Minister Modi, the Congress managed to set the agenda around local issues like the Amul-Nandini controversy, 40% commission government, anti-Hindi narrative, among others, which BJP kept on responding to.

Hence, except in the coastal region which accounts for 19 Assembly seats, the caste identity overwhelmingly dominated the religious identity in other areas. Further, the Congress appears to have done a better job in the caste matrix. Not only did the Grand Old Party court senior Lingayat leaders, but it also managed to placate the Vokkaliga voters. The Congress' outreach to the Vokkaliga community is relevant as the latter felt antagonised in the 2018 Assembly election due to then Congress CM Siddaramaiah's attempt to win solely on account of the Ahinda support base, sidelining the two dominant communities of the state, which ultimately led to the party's defeat in 2018. The Vokkaligas appear to have responded to the Congress' overtures.

However, the conducive ground ambience for the Congress met with an organisationally determined BJP, wherein the national leadership and local cadres made colossal efforts to neutralise the anti-incumbency mood. While the PM led from the front, the local cadres went for massive public outreach. In fact, the party appears to have acquired little more ground among a section of the Left Dalits and the Ahinda youth base. Nevertheless, a combination of factors -- like factional infighting in the BJP, the consequent rebellion that could not be managed, the weakness of the state BJP leadership, the meek counter-response to corruption charges, and the centrality of the local narratives -- created a starting point of asymmetry against the BJP, which the party could not turnaround effectively. The Congress, to its credit, synchronised efforts to cash in on the opportunity.

While the exact verdict would be out on May 13, there are two big takeaways from the nature of electoral campaigns the BJP, the Congress and the JD(S) employed in Karnataka. The ability to hold onto the local narrative vis-à-vis the national helps opposition parties in Assembly elections. However, extrapolating the same to the general election and attributing the outcome to regional exceptionalism would be an analytical blunder.

Sajjan Kumar is a political analyst associated with PRACCIS, Delhi-based research institution. He can be reached at sajjanjnu@gmail.com.

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