At the Glasgow climate change conference (COP26), c walked an extra mile and upscaled India’s commitment to its nationally determined contributions (NDC) agreed at Paris 2015 to be achieved by 2030. The installed renewable energy capacity target was increased from 450 GW to 500 GW. He further committed to meeting half the electricity requirement from renewable sources and to cut the total projected cumulative carbon emissions by one billion tonnes a year from 2022 to 2030. The earlier commitment to cut the carbon intensity of the GDP—the CO2 equivalent emitted per unit of GDP—by 33-35 percent by 2030 from the 2005 level was strengthened to 45 percent. The only action envisaged for meeting these targets is transitioning from coal and oil consumption to renewable energy.
Despite the pledges, power demand is surging after the pandemic. This has led to the installation of new coal-fired plants. Amid reports that France and the US may ban private funding for coal at the COP28—being held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12—the restriction on funds for new coal plants in India is being eased. It’s a move destined to increase fossil fuel consumption.
Wind and solar energy targets are the major contributors to green energy targets. Despite a wind power target of 60 GW by 2022 and 140 GW by 2030, and a solar power target of 100 GW by 2022 and 280 GW by 2030, we achieved 48 GW and 105 GW of wind and solar power capacity respectively by 2022.
At the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Modi called on world leaders to adopt LiFE—Lifestyle for the environment—which envisages grassroots movements for a healthy and sustainable way of living based on the values of conservation, tradition and environment-friendly development to minimise the carbon footprint. As a follow-up, India launched a national green credit programme, with the Dehradun-based Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education as the administrator. The measures under the programme include tree plantation, treatment and reuse of waste water, sustainable agriculture including land restoration, better waste management in collection and segregation, pollution reduction, conservation and restoration of mangroves, and sustainable buildings and infrastructure. It will reward eco-positive actions, work out green credit for different species of trees and climatic zones, and decide inter-credit equivalence between such activities.
Though India will take pride at COP28 in the positive actions on LiFE, the real action will be the implementation of the green credit programme, which envisages reducing coal and oil consumption and increasing the speed and scale of transition to renewable energy.
Just before COP28, the emissions gap report of the UN Environment Programme warned leaders that the world is set to get warmer by at least 3°C by the end of the century. The report added that the total global emissions in 2022 were the highest recorded at 57.4 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. While China, the US and India—the top three emitters in decreasing order—have exceeded their 2021 emissions, the EU, Brazil and Russia have succeeded in cutting down theirs. The report also states that even if all countries comply with the pledges made on NDCs, the emissions would still be 19 gigatonnes more than what is required to keep global warming within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The impact of inaction from global leaders is quite evident.
Like the rest of the world, India has suffered several extreme climatic events in recent years, especially across the Himalayas: Flooding in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim washed away roads and bridges, caused landslides and damaged tunnels. The collapse of the tunnel in Uttarkashi put the lives of 41 entrapped labourers at risk. Despite frequent tragic incidents such as the decade-old Kedarnath floods where thousands of lives were lost and the washing away of the under-construction Tapovan hydel project that took over 200 lives, we have continued to plunder nature and construct high-altitude rail lines, Char Dham roads and hydel projects. We must resolve to correct these missteps at COP28.
Former US president Donald Trump, who called climate change a hoax, is leading opinion polls to be one of the nominees in the mostly-two-party race for the largest economy’s top office in 2024. Three quarters of his Republican colleagues are against climate action. Though Democrats favour actions to cut emissions and provide finance to the Global South for resilient infrastructure and transition to green energy, they have not fulfilled it so far. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has delayed the ban on new diesel and petrol vehicles from 2030 to 2035. When major economies are fighting inflation and slowdown because of the pandemic and geopolitics, providing climate finance and taking action drops from being a primary objective.
The resolutions at Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh to phase down fossil fuel burning instead of phasing it out have caused a surge in emissions. In 2021, China burned 4.5 billion tonnes of coal and India burned 1.1 billion tonnes. Hopefully, COP28 will put the cap back on fossil fuel burning.
B K Singh
Former head of forest force, Karnataka