Maharashtra is seeing a straight and hard fight between the two national alliances, NDA and INDIA. The NDA is contesting through four parties in the state—the BJP, Shinde Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar NCP (AP-NCP) and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha—and INDIA is represented by three parties—the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray Shiv Sena (UT-SS) and Sharad Pawar NCP. The alliances are appealing to different sections of Maharashtrian society.
The BJP has given Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar—NDA’s two Maratha faces—the responsibility of attracting the community towards the bloc. The Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, with pockets of support in Marathwada, north Maharashtra and west Maharashtra, is mobilising the Dhangar (herder) community. The BJP, for itself, has focused on the OBCs. On the ground, there is palpable discontent against the Narendra Modi government on economic issues; at the same time, people express satisfaction with Modi’s leadership.
The state’s political axes are aligned along community lines—upper castes versus Marathas, Marathas versus OBCs, and upper castes versus SCs. Each division has a different social base. This makes the sub-regional contexts fascinating.
Vidarbha
The Vidarbha division is socially distinct from the others because its base is made of OBCs. The main contest here is between the Congress and the BJP. East Vidarbha has six Lok Sabha seats; two of the six are reserved—Ramtek for SC candidates and Gadchiroli-Chimur for scheduled tribes. The other constituencies feature OBC candidates from one side or the other—Vilas Thackeray in Nagpur, Ramdas Tadas in Wardha, Amar Kale also in Wardha, Sudhir Mungantiwar in Chandrapur and Pratibha Dhanurkar in Chandrapur. Modi has aggressively campaigned on OBC issues in East Vidarbha and his party has fielded Tadas and Mungantiwar.
Among the four seats in western Vidarbha, Amravati is reserved for SCs. There is a triangular fight between the BJP, Congress and Prahar Janshakti Party (PJP). Voters upset with incumbent MP Navneet Kaur Rana are turning to the PJP instead of the Congress. The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is contesting in Akola, Buldhana and Yavatmal, where it is contesting with OBC candidates against Maratha or Kunbi ones. The division of anti-BJP votes in these seats is going to be between the VBA and INDIA parties. UT-SS has some social support in this division, too.
North Maharashtra
Of the eight constituencies here, three are reserved—Nandurbar, Dindori and Shirdi—where the contest is a straight one between NDA and INDIA. In Dhule, Jalgaon and Ahmednagar, it’s Marathas versus Marathas. Raver has an OBC vs Maratha contest. The Left parties have substantial influence in this division, too. The region’s farmers, who mostly grow onions, bananas and grapes, are dissatisfied with the BJP.
There is a conflict brewing between the NDA’s Maratha candidates in the region—Subhash Bhamre, Smita Wagh and Sujay Vikhe Patil—and its OBC leadership of Eknath Khadse and Chhagan Bhujbal.
Mumbai and Konkan
There are 11 Lok Sabha constituencies in the Konkan division, including Mumbai and half of the Maval constituencies. Mumbai’s multicultural and urban polity is divided into three layers. Mumbai city’s two constituencies have large non-Marathi populations and pose one of the biggest challenged to UT-SS. Of the four constituencies in Thane district, Eknath Shinde’s backyard, is reserved for SCs; Shinde’s son Shrikant is contesting from Kalyan. Here, local castes such as Agri, Koli and Bhoi are taking the initiative in mobilisation. Suresh Mhatre (Agri) versus Kapil Patil (Agri) is a contest between Sharad Pawar NCP and BJP. All candidates here have not yet been announced for the four constituencies in Mumbai Suburban.
In Raigad, there is an OBC vs OBC competition between AP-NCP and UT-SS. In Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg in South Konkan, where OBC voters are in substantial numbers, it’s mainly a Maratha vs Maratha contest between Narayan Rane of BJP and Vinayak Raut of UT-SS. Shiv Sena had influence here, but the cadre is now divided with the party split.
Western Maharashtra
The BJP is contesting five of the 10 constituencies here. Of this, Pune is urban and the others semi-urban and semi-rural in nature. BJP’s Pune candidate is a Maratha and the Congress’s belongs to an OBC group. The image being portrayed here is that the Congress has fielded a poor candidate, whereas the BJP candidate is from the upper classes, which happens to be the party’s base here.
The social structure in Solapur, Sangli and Hatkanangle is multi-caste and multi-religious, including Lingayats and Buddhists. The BJP’s base here is the business class, whereas INDIA’s base is the peasantry, with sugarcane prices a big issue. Activists have shifted to the BJP after splitting from Raju Shetty, a former MP from Hatkanangle and president of Swabhimani Paksha who didn’t join either bloc.
Kolhapur, Satara, Madha, Baramati, Maval and Shirur are mainly supported by Marathas and OBCs. Shirur has a Maratha vs Mali contest. Supriya Sule from Baramati has a claim to her father’s Maratha heritage and her father-in-law’s Chandraseniya Prabhu heritage. The other constituencies face Maratha vs Maratha contests. Sharad’s party has been built anew here and the Marathas who joined NDA— including Vijaysinh Mohite Patil and Nilesh Lanke—are turning to NCP again.
Marathwada
In the division’s eight constituencies, there is conflict within castes and groups. So the NDA vs INDIA fight is socially playing out as Maratha vs Maratha and Maratha vs OBC. It’s the former in Jalna, Nanded, Osmanabad and Hingoli, and the latter in Beed and Parbhani. Muslim voters— who tend to favour UT-SS, Congress and Sharad Pawar NCP—will have an impressive say in entire Marathwada. VBA has also fielded candidates from this community.
In sum, the NDA may well corner substantial support in all the divisions while bleeding Maratha votes and gaining OBC ones. The UT-SS’s social base is expanding in Marathwada and western Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar’s NCP is getting most of its support in western Maharashtra, and the Congress in Vidarbha and Marathwada. Let the voting begin.
(Views are personal)
Prakash Pawar | Professor, Shivaji University, Kolhapur, and coordinator, Centre for Gandhian Studies