Coalition politics has been the lifeline of Kerala since Independence as it began prior to modern Kerala, with Travancore-Cochin politics as the forerunner. Barring two governments out of 23, all the governments since 1956 were a coalition of like-minded parties. Therefore, Kerala became the cradle of coalition politics in India. Over the years, coalition politics has matured into a sharp bipolar politics providing little room for a third coalition or party to win seats or form a government in Kerala. Unlike in other states, winning party candidates need a higher share of votes in the peculiar bi-polar electoral battle. Nevertheless, ideology took a backfoot and pragmatism prevailed in the formation and running of coalition governments. Curiously, Kerala voters behaved contrastingly in assembly and Lok Sabha polls in most cases. Further, it has resisted the national trend on a number of occasions.
Three fronts and the puzzle
The 2024 general elections bring contrasting challenges to all three fronts in Kerala—the United Democratic Front (UDF), the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This paradox is also found in building a strong narrative. In this context, the primary dilemma of the BJP, to open its account under the first past the post system of elections, is how to gain partners in its coalition structure with a substantial mass base. Otherwise, it has to emerge itself with critical mass as a strong rival to the traditional coalitions, the UDF and LDF. This is an unlikely aspect due to the social and political history, demography and unique developments in the state.
Unlike in other parts of India, the Hindutva ideology has severe limitations in the plural setting of the state. Formulating a credible narrative for the BJP is certainly problematic in this situation. It has to face two formidable rivals, viz the ideologically strong Communists, and the electorally astute Congress and its Muslim League combination. No wonder the NDA never polled more than 15 percent of votes in Kerala. At the same time, the RSS has a strong base with an organisational network functioning throughout Kerala.
With the 18th Lok Sabha elections close on its heels, Kerala is poised for a triangular fight in all 20 constituencies, although the BJP is offering stiff fights only in seven seats that confuses the traditional major rivals led by the Congress and the CPI(M). Added to this bewilderment is the fact that the UDF and LDF are also fraught with structural and ideological challenges.
Let us enter into this interesting scenario. Firstly, the Congress is not in power either in Kerala or in India and saves itself from any anti-incumbency factor. But it is organisationally weak, with leadership struggles at the state level and suffers from a dearth of funds. However, the presence of its national leader Rahul Gandhi vying for the Wayanad seat emboldens them like in 2019. But except the Muslim League, the Congress does not have a strong partner in the coalition.
Further, a few of its ranks deserted and joined the BJP recently. Consequently, it suffered from the criticism that the party is playing a ‘B’ Team for the BJP. Secondly, it has two rivals to beat in electoral politics, the mighty LDF that has been in power in Kerala for the last eight years, and the emerging BJP in most of the constituencies.
It is an irony that both the Congress and the CPI(M) are part of the INDI Alliance but are traditional rivals in Kerala. Except the ‘ideological’ unity to fight the BJP, to save secularism in the country, there is nothing in common between the Congress and CPI(M) as evinced in the complex politics of Kerala. Given these contradictions, crafting a substantive narrative for the UDF and the Congress is a basic dilemma.
Perhaps its strong point is that unlike the CPI(M), which is a weak force in national politics, the Congress continues as the major opposition party to the BJP and probably can lead the anti-BJP coalition either in power or in opposition soon after the polls.
Whereas the challenges before the LDF piloted by the CPI(M) are numerous. The CPI and the CPI(M) are contesting 90 percent of the seats in Lok Sabha, allowing limited roles for the smaller parties in the coalition (structurally, the LDF has more strength due to the presence of a number of smaller parties).
But the most challenging factor before them is how to build a strong narrative that is focused on attacking both the Congress and BJP. The former is a partner of the non-BJP alliance while the latter is an ideological rival. To win more seats, it has to appeal for support not only from party ranks but also build credibility and confidence among the Muslim and Christian communities, who together constitute more than 45 percent of the state population.
Secondly, it has to overcome the anti-incumbency against its own government that has been in power since 2016. This is not an easy task because of a host of current factors—a plummeting economy, increasing unemployment, price rise, corruption charges against the chief minister and few party leaders, increasing violence in the campuses for which its student arm, the Students Federation of India, has been targeted, stand- off with the governor over the extreme politicisation of the academic sector, tacit support from an extremist Muslim organisation, the SDPI etc.
Therefore, creating a credible narrative to address the Kerala electorate is more problematic for the LDF. Its attack on the BJP relating to the issues of secularism is equally competed by the UDF since the Congress is also apprehensive of the BJP on the topic of CAA, anti-minority policies, issue of Article 370, violation of the federal and secular spirit in the Constitution, etc.
In its over-enthusiasm to attack the BJP, the LDF lost its sheen to project the inherent problems of the major rival, the UDF. While the Congress could easily highlight the fact that it is much stronger at the national level to take on the challenges brought by the BJP, a similar assertion cannot be made by the LDF.
Therefore, the crisis before the Left is much deeper than its rival in the national poll. Its electoral strength is limited at the national level and except in Kerala, it has not emerged as a major force to reckon with. On the whole, the LDF suffers from two counts—the anti-incumbency factor and the limited appeal restricted to the state in a hotly contested general election. On the whole, the coalition puzzle is inescapable for all the three fronts in Kerala.
(Views are personal)
Dr G Gopa Kumar | Senior political scientist and former Vice Chancellor of the Central University of Kerala