The recent missile attacks and air strikes by Iran and Pakistan on each other’s territory have cast a long shadow over the already convoluted relationship between the two countries.
Iran, the vortex of the Shia crescent, backs several Shia non-state actors like the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, the erstwhile Mahdi’s Army in Iraq, and also Sunni outfits like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Hamas in the Gaza Strip, to name a few. Pakistan is a rogue nuclear-armed state with a history of illicit nuclear proliferation to authoritarian states around the world.
Iran, a civilisational entity, stretching across the millennia, and Pakistan, which till the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 was a part of British India, have an intertwined historical lineage including, and not limited to, the shared legacy of Persian and Macedonian empires to the modern challenges of sectarian divides and proxy wars that they perpetrate for ideological and even mercantile reasons.
The two countries have woven a tapestry of both cooperation and contention. Beneath the veneer of cultural exchanges and religious affinity lies deeply embedded mistrust and geopolitical pressures, constantly testing the fragile bonds that bind these neighbours. The recent skirmishes show the growing animosity between them that could have a significant impact on the stability of the Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan sub-region in West Asia.
The relations between Iran and Pakistan weren’t so strained historically. In fact, imperial Iran was one of the first countries to recognise the independence of Pakistan, and the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, was the first head of state to make an official state visit to Pakistan. Both Iran and Pakistan were allied with the American bloc, and the US, desperate to contain the Soviets, supported their deepening relationship. In the 1950s, Pakistan and Iran signed a treaty of friendship, and Iran actively supported Pakistan in the India-Pakistan wars of 1965 and 1971. In fact, during the 1971 war, Pakistani warplanes were parked at Tehran airport as a tactical backup had West Pakistan also crumbled like the East.
However, the relationship underwent a radical change after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The newly-formed theocratic state of Iran, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, ousted all the American and European companies operating in the country and nationalised its oil reserves. This forced Pakistan, which was allied with the US, to stytmie its growing relations with Iran.
After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Iran supported Shia militants against the Soviets while the West and Pakistan backed Sunni militants. Once the Soviets withdrew, the West-backed Taliban took control of Afghanistan, and on August 8, 1998, stormed the Iranian consulate in Kabul, killing one Iranian journalist, and eight diplomats in what came to be known as the Mazar-e-Sharif massacre. This complicated Iran’s relationship with Pakistan, which actively funded the Taliban for its own geopolitical machinations. The relations became further complicated due to the ongoing tussle between the two countries in another theatre—Baluchistan.
The Baluchistan region is carved up between Pakistan and Iran. It is blessed with natural resources like gold, copper, natural gas and chromites. These resources have been extensively exploited by both countries. However, despite having over $1 trillion worth of natural resources, the Baluchistan province of Pakistan has a poverty rate of 65 percent, the highest in Pakistan. Similarly, in the Sistan and Baluchistan provinces of Iran, the poverty rate is around 80 percent, whereas the national average is around 28 percent.
This lack of attention has fueled separatist sentiments in the region. To divert attention from its Baluchistan province and to please its patrons—Saudi and the West, which have antagonistic relations with Iran —Pakistan has been sponsoring Sunni-Baloch jihadist groups such as the Jaish ul-Adl in Iran’s Baluchistan region. In response, Iran has supported the Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF) and the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) which are operating on the Pakistani side.
This geopolitical tussle has worsened following Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent pulverisation of Gaza and the massacre of its civilian population as retribution. This conflict has spread throughout the West Asia. In response to the attacks by Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis, Israel has conducted air strikes in Lebanon, and the US has attacked Houthi bases. Taking advantage of the ongoing conflict, numerous extremist organisations such as the Islamic State and Jaish al-Adl, based in Pakistan, have conducted terrorist attacks in Iran.
Feeling cornered, Iran retaliated with its own air strikes in Syria and Iraq, claiming to target the Islamic State and Israeli bases. It has also conducted airstrikes in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, targeting the Jaish al-Adl group. Pakistan has responded with its own retaliatory airstrikes against the BLA and BLF in the Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran.
The cross-border airstrikes between Iran and Pakistan may lead to the opening of a new front in the ongoing West Asia proxy war. Iran’s economy has been crippled by the US sanctions and there is a growing unrest among the Iranian people against the Mullah regime.
Similarly, Pakistan too is facing economic woes and there is a huge discontent among the Pakistani people against the military establishment. Also, Pakistan is surrounded by countries with which it has antagonistic relations. Feeling threatened by external and internal actors, there is a very high probability that the two countries may choose to further escalate the conflict. Surprisingly, China, which treats Pakistan as a client state and signed a 25-year strategic partnership with Iran in March 2021, has been eloquent in its silence.
India which has had to contend with a two-front dilemma viz Pakistan and China can now take cold comfort in Pakistan’s three-front challenge—a hostile Iran, an increasingly belligerent Taliban in Afghanistan, and of course, India. However, given the rather quick de-escalation with Iran, India would be better served by keeping its powder dry and options nimble.
Minish Tewari
Member of Parliament, lawyer and former I&B minister
(Views are personal)