Millions are accustomed to repeating a chant of cultivated intuition at the beginning of a year—it is the time to ring out the old and ring in the new. It is, however, likely that many of us who willingly drown ourselves in the tidal wave of new year’s euphoria are aware how extremely difficult it is in practice to ring out the old or ring in the new. All the same, it has to be conceded this is one time in the year when a willing suspension disbelief is well worth the while.
Perhaps this very exercise of conditioning oneself to immerse in this thought of transition from old to new for a few days has a therapeutic value, even if the date fixed as the beginning of a year is arbitrary, much like weekends in the smaller cycle of days within a week. In a circle there is neither a beginning nor an end, hence putting these markers would have had to be at their genesis, a matter of fiat or faith.
Except for the modern mind, which has been conditioned by the modern calendar to believe the day marks a new beginning, there is nothing new about a frozen January 1, when half the living world is in deep hibernation. The onset of Spring, when the hibernating world begins awakening, could have looked more appropriate as a marker for the end and beginning in this endless cycle.
For Manipur, even as it enters the ninth month of a deadly and unprecedented ethnic conflict between Kuki-Zo communities and the Meiteis, which has left over 200 dead and several thousand displaced, contemplation of a new beginning is not going to be easy. Already, all the major post-harvest festivals of these communities this year were reduced to no more than sombre observations.
Indications are that this new year is unlikely to usher in any sense of a renewed spirit. Deep conflict scars will not vanish overnight, but even the conflict itself may not lift. With the Union and state governments doing little more than wait and watch, the only hope is for conflict fatigue to force an end to overt hostilities to give temporary respite but not any lasting resolution. The only tangible thing the authorities have done so far is to create a buffer ring at the foothills all around the Imphal Valley to prevent rioters from either side from crossing to the other side.
While this has prevented any further large-scale mayhem, outbreaks of limited gun violence in different pockets are still routine. The question is, should this be all the government is called upon to do? Should it also not be thinking urgently of bringing back the law firmly into its own hands, as should be the case in any state?
As of now, after some voluntary surrenders and seizures by authorities, there are still over 4,000 lethal weapons looted from state police armouries and gun shops still illegally in civil hands. A greater number of these are in the valley area, but a substantive number are in the hills too. Over and above these, there is also an unspecified number flowing in from across Manipur’s porous border with Myanmar.
The State should ideally be loved and feared by its subjects, as Niccolo Machiavelli suggests in his classic treatise on statecraft, The Prince. He also says if commanding both love and fear are not possible, then fear should be preferred as the safer option, for love is an obligation that can be forsaken for other gains, while fear of retribution will remain regardless of circumstance. The implication also is that a failed State will command neither.
Against this scale, the Manipur government currently would fare miserably. An atmosphere of bloody anarchy has been allowed to prevail for eight months now with little signs of it ending anytime soon. Other than the 200-plus lives lost and properties destroyed, several thousand internally displaced families in relief camps are in despair about their and their children’s future. There expectedly is a growing sense of disenchantment all around at the way the state and central governments are handling the crisis. If on one hand, the Manipur government has lost the love of those respectful of authority, it seemingly also now commands little or no inhibitory fear among those who have chosen to take the law into their own hands.
If it is a matter of the state government finding itself clueless, the question is, why has the central government not taken constitutional emergency measures to place the state government under animated suspension and take charge to bring back the rightful awe of the law? Had this been the resort within the first week of the crisis, when it became evident things were spinning out of the state government’s control, so many precious lives so senselessly lost and properties mindlessly destroyed would have been spared. The bitterness that is now feeding the feud would not have been so extensive or deep either.
Also read: The fluidity of identities in the Northeast
A growing speculation is of a grand game plan behind this delay. Rather than decisive moves to freeze the conflict, what has become increasingly apparent is that the authorities were always strangely content applying just enough force to keep the feud from escalating into a raging inferno, but also ensuring the situation remained simmering and tense. Was this meant as bait for Meitei insurgents to leave their hideouts in Myanmar to join the feud in a big way, so they can be cornered and pressured to either surrender or agree to enter peace talks? If this is so, it must be said it is sinister considering the immense collateral damage—both material and spiritual—this has caused. The plan may also backfire.
Today, most of the foremost Northeast insurgent groups are in peace parleys or have signed accords with the government. Only Meitei insurgent organisations and a faction of Assam’s United Liberation Front of Asom are stubbornly refusing all suggestions for negotiating a settlement across the table.
Amid this darkness, even if it is only an induced sense of optimism that the new year brings, one hopes it ushers back some sense to end this frenzied madness, and normalcy returns to this tormented land.
(Views are personal)
Pradip Phanjoubam, Editor, Imphal Review of Arts and Politics