Long back in 2009, I was in Delhi, reporting to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. He was not certain about the election outcome. I felt he had a good chance of winning more seats than they had won in 2004. The period from 2004 to 2009 had been one in which decisive action had been taken. In the political conflict over the civil nuclear bill, the Left—headed by the rigid Prakash Karat—had been put in its place. India had secured its position and flexibility in the global nuclear club.
The 2008-9 economic crisis that had ravaged the world had been contained in India, with the prime minister and his team showing uncanny skills. The 26/11 terror attack caused jitters as there was a justifiable feeling across India that we should have been more vigilant, as had happened during the Kargil incursion a few years earlier. Yet, there was no visible impact of that feeling in the Delhi state elections held a couple of days later, which Sheila Dikshit won with ease. There were a couple of other incidents like an oilmen’s strike and a flash strike in Mumbai which brought the local trains to a halt for a few hours. These too were effectively handled.
On the eve of the 2009 elections, the overall image was that of a government that worked and could confidently handle issues. Yet, the PM was not confident. The opposition NDA was strong, led by L K Advani and with some very powerful political personalities. As it happened, the Congress got over 200 seats and a news channel repeatedly played the song, ‘Singh is king’.
As we go into the 2024 elections, the situation seems to be the converse of 2009. A new alliance has been formed, euphemistically called INDIA. It was formed some months ago, but its level of activity seems low-key. The Congress victory in Karnataka—which was largely the combined effect of local leaders’ efforts and disillusionment with the preceding government—deluded the party into believing that they had a favourable wave in the assembly elections held later in 2023, and could go it alone. INDIA’s constituent parties contested against each other and lost heavily. The Congress lost its governments in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and was resoundingly defeated in Madhya Pradesh.
Viewed from afar, the cards seem decked heavily in favour of the ruling dispensation at the Centre. There is no lack of clarity about leadership. The general election votes are likely to be heavily in favour of Narendra Modi. If we compare the 2018 state elections results with the 2019 general elections, the trend of divergence between state and national elections would be clearly visible. So even in the South, state results need not correspond to the electorate’s choices for the Lok Sabha. The younger generation, in particular, see Modi as a decisive and progressive man who will take the country forward.
On the other hand, a state of confusion appears to prevail in the INDIA bloc. They have met a few times but have not yet been able to decide a common agenda. I read that the Congress has entrusted the task of preparing a manifesto to P Chidambaram, as they did in 2019. Should not the common agenda of INDIA be prepared first and the manifesto of each constituent party reflect it with minor variations to reflect regional interests? Should not the preparation of the manifesto be a joint effort?
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Even without a manifesto, the route the NDA will take seems clear. On the development side, the focus on infrastructure, technology and corporate growth will continue. On the social side, there will be a number of centrally-sponsored schemes, primarily intended to weaken federalism and strengthen ‘double-engine sarkars’. In the name of “responsible” fiscal management, the financial strength of state governments that do not have double-engines will be further curtailed. The uniform code, citizenship amendment law and parliamentary delimitation are likely to be implemented. The official language provisions in the Constitution may be pulled out from mothballs. The uninhibited use of regulatory and investigative agencies will continue. At the same time, the economy will grow unless there are global shocks. The government will communicate effectively with the people and there will be publicity blitzes. In 2029, the NDA is likely to be, under normal circumstances, even stronger than in 2024.
The INDIA bloc is lagging not only in deciding a common agenda that could appeal to the people but also on seat-sharing in a spirit of compromise. Living in distant Kerala, I see in the regional newspapers uninhibited badmouthing of one another by Congress and CPM leaders. The Left remains implacably opposed to Trinamool Congress and the Congress’s stand in West Bengal is ambivalent. The Congress, the largest constituent of the INDIA bloc, itself seems divided in many places. There is no indication that anyone is in control of the bloc. In the beginning, Nitish Kumar took the initiative to visit state capitals and bring opposition parties together. Even that has ceased and rumours are afloat that he is rethinking his political position.
The INDIA formation seems to be relying on the fact that because BJP won only 37 percent of the votes in 2019—and the NDA as a whole 45 percent—the rest of the votes will automatically float to them. This is a miscalculation. There is no indication at present that the others will unite to form an opposition. Or that the voter’s preference today is the same as in 2019. Or that there is a strong anti-incumbency feeling as in 1977 and 2014. Without an agenda, without leadership, without a strategy for vote-sharing, without a time-bound plan for reaching down to the booth level, can they expect to win an election against a formidable opponent just on the strength of another yatra?
(Views are personal)
K M Chandrasekhar, Former Cabinet Secretary and author of As Good as My Word: A Memoir