Taking advantage of the distraction caused by the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, China has upped the ante in the South China Sea (SCS). The Philippines has accused China of deploying its maritime forces which have since February this year, “harassed, blocked and executed dangerous manoeuvres” against a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested island hosting a small Philippines military contingent. Over several months, the Philippines coast guard has exposed the unlawful activities of China’s coast guard and maritime militia.
China claims that the Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal are in its maritime zone, while the Philippines claims these as part of its exclusive economic zone. In 2016, the International Permanent Court of Arbitration dismissed China’s territorial claims against the Philippines under the UN Law of the Sea Convention. Beijing dismissed the ruling and continues to claim ownership and deploy various provocations. China has deployed its coast guard ships, and other boats masquerading as fishing boats, to patrol the busy waterway as if it were its territorial waters. Beijing claims “indisputable sovereignty” over almost all of the 3.5 million sq km of the SCS, as well as most of the islands and sandbars in it, including features that are hundreds of kilometres from the Chinese mainland.
China’s coast guard ships have used water cannons against Philippine ships and even rammed into one of them. China has also used military-grade laser and acoustic devices against Philippine ships. The Philippines government had to summon the Chinese ambassador in Manila to lodge a protest, calling China’s actions a blatant violation of international law. Senior Philippine leaders have called for the expulsion of China’s ambassador, who has been making aggressive ‘wolf warrior’ statements.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has said, “The aggression and provocations perpetrated by [China’s maritime forces] have only further steeled our determination to defend and protect our nation’s sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction” in the SCS. This president has taken a more vocal and proactive stance against China as compared to the previous president, Rodrigo Duterte. The latter had tried to appease China and lost the election. The mid-term elections in the Philippines are scheduled for 2025 and anti-China sentiments are rising rapidly. The US has supported its ally and called on Beijing to desist from its dangerous and destabilising actions in the SCS. The US has said it stands by Manila and reaffirmed the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, which commits the US to help the Philippine armed forces if attacked.
China accused the Philippines of lying and claimed that Chinese ships had acted with professionalism and restraint, blaming the Philippine boats for “illegally intruding” into Chinese waters. China reiterated that its actions were a part of border control measures, as per national laws. China even claimed that a Philippine ship rammed a Chinese ship, though video evidence clearly showed the reverse.
China’s outlandish claim covers almost four-fifths of the SCS as its territorial waters and it has disputes over several islands in the SCS with several littoral countries. China wants to convert the SCS into a Chinese lake and wants other countries to fall in line with its dictates and abandon their own claims. It has built artificial islands too, militarised the illegally occupied islands to reinforce its claims, and attempted to enforce an air defence identification zone over the airspace. Deception and lying go hand in hand in China’s pursuit of its foreign policy objectives.
China’s bullying tactics are designed to convey that it has overwhelming naval superiority and that opposition is futile. China also wants the Philippines to eschew the option of granting the US access to its bases which are closest to Taiwan under the Philippines-USA expanded defence agreement.
Additionally, China wants to test the US’s resolve in coming to the defence of its treaty allies. These tactics may expose American resolve and send a signal to its allies that the US is constrained. China’s strategy has posed a new challenge to the US’s strategy in Asia, but it has been careful in not to cross certain red lines. China has honed its ‘gray zone tactics’, which stay short of armed attacks. A collateral objective China hopes to achieve is linked to the supply chains moving out of China to the Philippines and other countries. China’s grey zone warfare creates uncertainty for companies attempting to diversify supply chains out of China.
How to deter China—short of a full-blown conflict—is now the new policy dilemma for the US and its QUAD partners. This would require not just military deterrence but also a geo-economic strategy. The summit between Presidents Biden and Xi at the APEC meeting in November indicated that China wants to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds. Under pressure from a slowing economy, various sanctions on the manufacturing of chips and the sudden purge of his foreign and defence ministers, Xi was conciliatory with the US; yet, Chinese forces bared their fangs in the SCS.
India has extended support to the Philippines and conducted maritime exercises with them. India’s anti-submarine ship INS Kadmatt visited the Philippines in December; earlier, India had sold the high-tech naval version of the BRAHMOS missile to the Philippines. China is playing the long game, calibrating its aggression depending on the shifting ties between Beijing and Manila. China seeks to force the Philippines to abandon its claim to the Second Thomas Shoal. Kowtowing to China and accepting its dictates determines China’s aggressiveness towards a neighbour.
The Philippines has decided to expose China’s bullying to the world and ensure that China’s fabricated narrative is debunked. Its more pugnacious stance signals that it will not submit meekly. The Philippines hopes to garner global support and set an example for other smaller nations to stand up to China. Among the QUAD countries, Australia, Japan and the US are shoring up support by capacity building and helping expose China’s nefarious designs.
(pr.chakravarty@gmail.com)
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty
Former Secretary in the foreign ministry and former High Commissioner to Bangladesh. Founding Director of DeepStrat, a think tank